A home turf of BJP bigwigs, Priyanka Gandhi to face herculean task in east UP

Within hours of Priyanka Gandhi’s appointment as Congress general secretary in charge of eastern UP, Congress workers in Varanasi made an appeal. “Kashi ki janta kare pukar, Priyanka ho saansad hamaar (People of Varanasi want Priyanka to be their MP)”, they chanted across the temple town. Varanasi, the high-profile constituency whose MP is Prime Minister Narendra Modi, falls in eastern UP.

Over the years, Congress’ decline in UP has been steep. From winning 83 out of 85 seats in 1984, the party was down to just the mother-son pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli in 2014, with a mere 7.5% voteshare.

Congress’ recent exclusion from the pre-poll alliance between regional heavyweights Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD has only served to rub in its decline.


Party leaders from the region are unsurprisingly unanimous in terming the move a masterstroke. “Priyanka didi had convinced me to fight against Modi in 2014. Now, I have requested her to contest from here. We are all ready.

Modi will face a big defeat at her hand,” Ajai Rai of the Congress, who unsuccessfully contested against Modi in Varanasi in 2014, told ET Magazine, with an evident elation in his voice. “Her elevation will have a ripple effect in the adjoining states,” he said.

BJP bigwigs from the region are just as quick to discount the move. Telecom minister Manoj Sinha, BJP’s upper caste face from eastern UP, feels the Congress was forced to bring Priyanka after the SPBSP rebuff. “Besides, her appointment has enthused more people in Delhi than in eastern UP,” he told ET Magazine. “She was part of seat-sharing talks with SP in 2017. How can one expect different results this time?”

For Congress leaders, the benchmark remains 2009 when the politically fertile UP gave it 21 seats — its best show in UP after 1984. Of the 21 seats (the count rose to 22 after Raj Babbar won Kannauj bypolls), 13 came from east UP. Of the seven seats where it stood second, four were in the east. Congress’ effort will be to revive its traditional core votes—Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits.

While it’s aware that most of these votes have been lost to the BJP or regional heavyweights, it’s counting on its rising political graph to woo them back.

The traditional political wisdom is that voting blocs such as Brahmins and Muslims consider the winnability of parties and formations. Therefore, most politically aware Brahmins might shy away from “wasting” their votes on a struggling Congress. Muslims largely vote for a party capable of defeating the BJP – which most argue is the SP-BSP-RLD alliance. As for Dalits, Mayawati still remains their first choice, with or without the alliance.

The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act is seen to have been a big factor behind the Congress’ good showing in Poorvanchal in 2009. Unlike the agriculturerich west, Poorvanchal has neither industry nor farm income. Defection of key OBC leaders including Beni Prasad Verma from the SP in 2009 to the Congress, too, helped the party improve its score.

East UP is now the home turf of BJP bigwigs such as chief minister Yogi Adityanath (Gorakhpur), Manoj Sinha (Ghazipur), state president Mahendra Nath Pandey (Chandauli), Union home minister Rajnath Singh (MP from Lucknow, hails from Chandauli) and deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya (Allahabad), besides the Prime Minister. East is also the home of the two allies it is trying to keep together - Apna Dal and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party.

Countering Modi and team in Varanasi and east UP in general, SP-BSP-RLD coalition at other places, and, at the same time, striking multi-caste coalitions, wooing minorities and bringing back upper-caste votes in about three months remain a herculean task for Priyanka despite her charisma, lineage and as yet-unproven oratory. A hotbed of polarisation, east UP might again see a clear split between who is with Modi and who is against. Congress doesn't as yet figure in the two main blocks that are in contention.