A combination of factors keep Tamil Nadu politics astir despite CM Vijay's popularity

New Delhi: The euphoria over C Joseph Vijay's dramatic leap to Tamil Nadu's top post is yet to die down, but the chief minister's caution to his TVK party MLAs on Wednesday to guard against any toppling bid has officially underscored that his nascent government is already in alert mode. Some stakeholders in the state's ruling front privately said they have reasons to be extra cautious as the six-month bar, insulating the state government from any no-confidence motion, has now ended.

While Vijay, they said, continues to ride on his celluloid stardom-propelled mass appeal, the conduct of some of his MLAs, mostly a collection of political novices, has not been faultless, with some creating needless controversies, a factor that worries some in the ruling front given the four larger backgrounds:

• That the six-month old government's majority is still not completely unassailable in case of 'seepage'
• Opposition DMK and AIADMK are also recovering from initial shocks and are working to fight back
• Given the lack of many seasoned politicians as ministers, the state government is yet to establish a firm grip on administration

Continuance of some loose ends and irritants in the ruling coalition and the chief minister preferring to be in tactical blow-hot-blow-cold attitude vis a vis the Modi government.


On paper, TVK (109), Congress, IUML and VCK, which are partners in the government, have around 118 MLAs, including the Speaker, in the assembly with effective strength of 229 (with five vacancies), with majority mark at 115. The ruling side also has outside support from four Left MLAs and an Independent. The combined Opposition parties, including the 'unaligned' DMK and AIADMK, have 106 MLAs. Some ruling front functionaries apprehend that DMK is now plotting a toppling bid on the Vijay government by trying to combine the Opposition parties, including AIADMK, by bridging the faultlines and by wooing some sections of TVK MLAs and ruling allies. Vijay's caution to his MLAs on Wednesday is seen in this context.

While DMK has been denying any toppling plan and charging the Vijay government of trying to poach the Opposition MLAs, the ruling front does not buy it. "The DMK leadership, more so, leader of the Opposition Udhayanidhi Stalin, is desperately trying to somehow topple the Vijay government by joining hands with AIADMK and other Opposition parties. They know that once CM Vijay settles down with his government, the DMK and Udhayanidhi will have to languish in the Opposition for years, if not decades. The Centre and BJP are trying to exploit the situation amid their attempt to get the delimitation Bill passed," claimed a ruling coalition leader.

Lack of ideological cohesiveness of TVK MLAs, with some of them from DMK-AIADMK backgrounds, make the vigil trickier. While TVK had initially engineered the resignations of six AIADMK MLAs and won two by-elections so far to marginally increase its strength, the ruling front now suspects 'a deliberate delay' in notifying the remaining five assembly by-elections".

Adding on are internal issues. Sources pointed out that the Left parties fielding candidates against TVK in the recent two by-elections amplified that the TN leadership of CPI, CPI-M and Vijay has not yet fully gelled politically. Further, while Congress is relishing a slice of power in TN after its post-poll pole-vaulting to Vijay's tent, Congress leaders do not want to risk coalition irrelevance again if TVK manages majority on its own and thus are opposing Vijay's party 'luring' more Opposition MLAs (over 20 from AIADMK had crossvoted when Vijay won the trust vote). With Vijay making it clear that the stability of his government is paramount, his choosing to be in see-saw mode with the Modi government and him not rushing to join the Opposition INDIA bloc's national platform adds spice to the pull and push of TN politics.