3 tough polls coming up, BJP will bank on Karnataka morale booster

NEW DELHI: Though it fell just short of a majority, the Karnataka result will come as a boost for BJP ahead of key polls in major states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where it is in office and will make Congress's task more challenging in the absence of a third player who can be a pre- or post-poll ally.


The next round of state polls will be a direct BJP versus Congress faceoff. Even in Mizoram, given BJP's inroads in the north-east, the party could be in the ring even if as a lesser force. The alacrity with which Congress reached out to Janata Dal (S), and offered the chief ministership, may stall BJP for now but raises questions over the coming elections that promise to be thrillers as well.


BJP will be seeking a fourth term in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, states as part of an undivided MP were Congress bastions and which it lost only as an occasional exception. This time, it has the challenge of ending a long drought and while long incumbency does offer an opportunity, it will require quite an effort to get the better of BJP's government-electoral machinery.

The chinks in the BJP armour are evident. There has been farm unrest in Madhya Pradesh despite high agricultural growth as expectations of the farming communities rise. Instances of high handedness and out of turn commentary are a particular concern. The vote has always run close in Chhattisgarh where the difference in the last election was less than 1%. The problems in Rajasthan have been more severe with evidence of serious discontent surfacing in the Lok Sabha and assembly bypolls. Unlike the other two states, Rajasthan has been a revolving door for BJP and Congress.

In all three states, BJP governments have counted on farm sops and welfare schemes - in Chhattisgarh, a well regarded PDS system has helped the Raman Singh government - to establish voter support. The party's dominance has largely reflected in civic elections too though Congress has made some gains in Rajasthan. With Karnataka elections over, the BJP leadership is expected to effect the appointment of a new state chief in Rajasthan.

Congress gave BJP a run for its money in Gujarat but its inability to defend its fort in Karnataka was underscored by its offer to JD(S). The decision to play second fiddle to a regional party with much lesser numbers will be read as a sign of weakness in the light of PM Narendra Modi's repeated taunts that Congress is a shrinking force. Making a fight of it in states where BJP has sunk deep roots will not be easy, particularly as older leaders have not faded and younger ones haven't quite made a mark.