2G & Black MGR make life tough for Karunanidhi

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi faces a daunting task in his attempt to become the chief minister of the state for the fifth time because of a huge anti-incumbency factor and the impact of India’s largest corruption scandal, involving his Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

With the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo, J Jayalalithaa, building an equally formidable electoral alliance by enlisting the backing of film actor Vijaykanth and R Sarathkumar, MDMK and Left parties, the poll arithmetic too seems to have ceased to become a favourable factor for the ruling combine.

Tuesday’s announcement of the poll schedule may lead to a scramble to finalise seat-sharing talks and finalising alliance deals quickly. DMK has struck deals with the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, giving them 31 and 10 seats, respectively.

Talks between DMK and Congress are on with both parties trying to drive a hard bargain. AIADMK too is on the verge of concluding seat-sharing discussions with Vijaykanth’s DMDK. It had won 8% of the votes polled in 2006, when it made its debut. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it increased its vote-share to 10.08% and managed to eat into the share of both the AIADMK and PMK. It also managed to attract the votes of Dalits, thanks to Vijaykanth positioning himself as Black MGR, the film superstar and founder of AIADMK in 1971.

The political situation in Tamil Nadu has undergone a dramatic shift since 2009, when the DMK-Congress alliance swept the polls. Political observers say that the 2G scam and the unpopularity of the family members of Karunanidhi may tilt the balance in AIADMK’s favour at least in cities and urban areas.

In the coastal districts, the killings of Tamil fishermen by the Lankan navy has become a major political issue and Jayalalithaa is out to whip up popular sentiment against the ruling combine. AIADMK is banking on antiincumbency, 2G scam and the appeal of DMDK’s Vijaykanth to swing voters to its side, while DMK strategy is aimed at keeping as much of its base intact and eke out a decisive victory.