2018: The expectations and the challenges

With the advent of the year 2018, here are few expectations and the challenges ahead:

Triple Talaq Bill
With Rajya Sabha to take up the bill, passed by Lok Sabha on December 28, 2017, this week, battle lines for the New Year have already been drawn.


The Poll Field
* 2018 can easily be dubbed as the election year, with assembly elections to Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland in Feb-March setting the tone for the rest of the year.

* Meghalaya’s Congress govt is under pressure as many of its legislators have resigned and joined National People’s Party, which is part of BJP-led NDA.

* Left Front-ruled Tripura is a citadel which BJP would certainly like to breach. Manik Sarkar, CM since 1998, is seemingly facing his first real test.

* Karnataka polls in April-May are a bigger challenge for incumbent Congress than BJP. If Congress fails to retain power, it would find itself in dire straits.

* Year-end polls in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh will set the stage for the bigger battle of 2019, the Lok Sabha elections. Since BJP is the ruling party in these three states, its return to power will boost its chances for 2019. But a loss would give Congress-led opposition an opportunity to take battle to BJP’s den. Mizoram will also vote around the same time.

* Karnataka, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are difficult for BJP. While Congress under Siddaramaiah is posing a strong challenge in Karnataka, BJP faces anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

All About Aadhaar
The Aadhaar battle, which is now being played out in the Supreme Court, will also be keenly watched.

Priorities for Armed Forces
* Road development along LAC and border with China to speed up. Any procurement to be done with China in mind.

* Army will receive a replacement for T-72 tank. The Future Ready Combat Vehicle programme will see some progress. Army’s Apache attack helicopter project will also see fresh developments. They will eventually lead to deployment in the high altitude areas along LAC.

* 2018 could be really important for the Air Force as some more fighter jets could be added to its fleet.

* For Navy, more advanced Scorpene class submarines will be commissioned.

* Army will continue its J&K ops to keep a tap on any Pak-backed terrorist outfits.

The Geopolitics
* PM Modi will be the first Indian PM to visit Davos in 20 years.

* Israeli PM expected to visit India in January and address the Raisina Dialogue along with PM Modi.

* 10 Asean leaders to be present during Republic Day celebrations.

* As China asserts itself in South China Sea, tries to expand its global footprint through OBOR and sees itself playing a bigger role in India’s neighbourhood, India will try to keep up with its northern neighbour in alliance with the US, Japan and Australia.

* West Asia can be a flashpoint. While stability in Saudi Arabia will be key to regional status quo, Iran can further expand its regional outreach. Indian interests will be tested with large expatriate community, energy interests, security imperatives, besides transportation corridors through Iran.

* Bhutan and Bangladesh will go to polls this year. Elections in Pakistan may only give temporary hope to Indo-Pak ties. Maldives polls will be another challenge for India in the Indian Ocean region.

* Vladimir Putin’s reelection as the Russian President in April for another six-year term will strengthen ties as he visits Delhi for the annual summit.

* Donald Trump’s possible visit to India in 2018 would strengthen his personal chemistry with Modi.