With Japanese Baba Vanga’s July 5 apocalyptic prophecy looming, Japan prepares new megaquake plan

Japan’s government says urgent improvements are needed to stop a megaquake from killing up to 300,000 people if disaster strikes the Nankai Trough. Officials have raised the chance of a powerful jolt there within 30 years to as high as 82 percent. A new estimate in March warned such a quake and tsunami might claim as many as 298,000 lives and cause damage worth up to $2 trillion.

Old plan, new urgency

Back in 2014, the Central Disaster Management Council set out a plan to cut deaths by 80 percent through stronger defences and evacuation measures. Ten years on, progress is limited. Kyodo news agency reported that actions so far may only reduce the toll by 20 percent.

This week, an updated strategy landed on the table. It demands faster building of embankments, more sturdy evacuation sites and repeated drills for communities.


Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba didn’t mince words. “It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible,” Ishiba said at a government meeting, according to local media.

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History of deep tremors

The Nankai Trough stretches 800 kilometres under the Pacific coast. One tectonic plate slides beneath another here. Nature’s push and pull under these waters has triggered massive quakes for 1,400 years — striking roughly every century or two. The last big one hit in 1946.

Last August, the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) issued its first advisory that the risk had jumped. But they lifted it after a week. The fault line remains restless.

New megaquake prediction: Viral rumours, nervous visitors

Panic travels fast these days. A manga comic, reissued in 2021, predicted a huge disaster on 5 July 2025. The date has stuck online. Some foreign tourists are skipping Japan this summer. In May, Hong Kong’s Greater Bay Airlines cut flights, saying “demand has rapidly decreased,” a local tourism official told AFP.

Tourist data reflects it. Visits from Hong Kong fell 11.2 percent that month compared to last year. Mainland Chinese visitors surged 44.8 percent and South Korean arrivals rose 11.8 percent, showing not everyone is staying away.

Ryoichi Nomura, head of the JMA, reminded the public in May that fear shouldn’t replace facts. “It is impossible with current science to predict earthquakes by specifying the location, time, and magnitude of an earthquake, and to say that an earthquake will or will not occur,” Nomura said. “We ask the public to take certain steps so that you can cope with earthquakes no matter when they occur. But we also strongly urge the public not make irrational actions driven by anxiety.”

How to prepare for earthquake?

Tokyo’s disaster guide is clear: being ready beats guessing when the ground will move.

Before a Quake:

Know where you’ll run — not just from home but from work, your child’s school and any place you often visit. Print maps. Don’t trust the internet during a blackout. Write down phone numbers for family, friends, emergency services and your embassy. Keep them in a waterproof kit. Stock up on water, dry food and check expiry dates every year. Strap down furniture, heavy gadgets and cabinets. A loose fridge or shelf can kill.

Keep your car tank half full. Watch for evacuation signs when you travel. Register with your embassy if you’re not a Japanese citizen. Download a quake app like Yurekuru Call. A few seconds’ notice might help you duck for cover.

During a Quake:

Inside, drop to lower your centre of gravity. Cover your head and neck. Hold onto something solid. Outside, dodge falling glass or bricks. On a train or bus, follow staff instructions and move away from windows. In a car? Pull over far from trees, poles or buildings. If you leave the car, unlock it and keep the keys in so rescue teams can move it.

After a Quake:

Near the sea? Don’t wait for a siren. Climb to higher ground fast. If trapped, cover your mouth. Tap pipes or walls for help. Save energy — don’t shout. Use texts or social media if calls fail. After Japan’s 2011 quake, Twitter kept many in touch. Avoid lifts — aftershocks hit hard. Switch off gas and your circuit breaker if you evacuate. Flames can spark bigger trouble.

A megaquake is a matter of when, not if, say Japanese officials. Calm heads, solid plans and strong teamwork could stop the worst. The rest is up to nature — and how ready people are to face it when the ground shakes again.

(With inputs from AFP)