Will AI replace India’s IT sector? Viral Citrini's research study flags TCS, Infosys, Wipro at risk

A viral report by Citrini Research, titled The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, has ignited widespread discussion about the future trajectory of the global economy. The paper outlines a hypothetical worst-case scenario in which rapid advances in AI automation lead to large-scale job losses and financial turmoil by 2028. It specifically flags Indian IT majors such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro as being particularly vulnerable, arguing that their traditional business models could be severely disrupted by AI-powered automation.

According to the report, by 2028 India’s IT services industry, which had been exporting more than $200 billion annually, could face a dramatic slowdown as global clients increasingly shift to AI coding agents available at significantly lower costs.

"The entire model was built on one value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. But the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity," the report stated. It further warned that as services exports weaken, the rupee could depreciate sharply against the dollar within a span of four months.


"TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027. The rupee fell 18 per cent against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India's external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun "preliminary discussions" with New Delhi."

The report argues that AI advancement creates a self-reinforcing cycle with no built-in mechanism to slow it down, as companies continue to pour investments into automation even while consumer spending declines.

"AI got better and cheaper. Companies laid off workers, then used the savings to buy more AI capability, which let them lay off more workers. Displaced workers spent less," it noted.

"Companies that sell things to consumers sold fewer of them, weakened, and invested more in AI to protect margins. AI got better and cheaper. A feedback loop with no natural brake."

The analysis also highlights a striking irony: while firms like NVIDIA and TSM, central to the AI ecosystem, continued to thrive, the broader economy being reshaped by their technologies began to show signs of deterioration.