Weather Today October 9: When will winter begin in India? IMD shares cold-wave update as Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Karnataka brace for rain

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall across several parts of India over the coming days, with isolated heavy rainfall likely in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and other regions. As the Southwest Monsoon continues to withdraw, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13 and move towards the north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts. The weather department has also indicated that conditions are likely to become favourable for the onset of the Northeast Monsoon over south Peninsular India at the beginning of the week starting October 15.

IMD rain alert: Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka to receive rainfall

According to the IMD, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe, as well as Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, from October 8 to 10. South Interior Karnataka is also likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall on October 9.

Rainfall is expected to continue across several southern regions between October 8 and 14. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are likely to experience isolated to scattered rainfall during this period.


Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on October 9 and 10, while Lakshadweep is also expected to experience rainfall during October 8-10.

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on October 10 and 11.

Heavy rainfall warning for Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim

Rainfall activity is expected across parts of eastern India, with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on October 8.

Arunachal Pradesh is likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall from October 8 to 10. Assam and Meghalaya may experience rainfall between October 8 and 11, with another spell forecast for October 13 and 14.

Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall throughout October 8-14.

Rain forecast for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh

The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana and Punjab between October 8 and 14.

West Uttar Pradesh is likely to receive rainfall between October 8 and 11, while East Uttar Pradesh may experience rainfall from October 8 to 10.

In the hills, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad on October 10. Uttarakhand is likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on October 9, with isolated heavy rainfall also expected in the state on the same day.

Himachal Pradesh may receive isolated to scattered rainfall on October 13 and 14. Uttarakhand is also likely to experience rainfall during October 10-14.

Parts of Rajasthan are expected to receive rainfall later in the week, with isolated to scattered showers forecast over West Rajasthan on October 11 and 12 and East Rajasthan on October 12.

Low-pressure area likely over Bay of Bengal around October 13

The IMD has forecast the possible emergence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea around October 11. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13.

The system is likely to become more marked and move north-westwards towards the north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts over the following four days.

A Western Disturbance is currently affecting north-west India, while another is likely to influence the region during the week.

The weather department has also said conditions are likely to become favourable for the further withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from more parts of eastern India and some parts of the northeast during the week.

Southwest Monsoon withdrawal: Northeast Monsoon onset expected next week

The Southwest Monsoon had withdrawn from several parts of northern and central India by October 3. On October 8, it further withdrew from the remaining parts of Maharashtra, some parts of Goa, Karnataka, Telangana and Odisha, as well as additional parts of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, according to the IMD.

Conditions are likely to become favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the entire country at the beginning of the week starting October 15.

At the same time, the onset of the Northeast Monsoon is likely over south Peninsular India. The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over most parts of Peninsular India and along the east coast during October 15-21.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Odisha, Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala on a few days during the week.

For the country as a whole, rainfall is likely to remain below normal during October 8-14. However, during October 15-21, rainfall is expected to be above normal over south Peninsular India and below normal over north-western, eastern and north-eastern India.

IMD temperature forecast: No cold wave expected

The IMD has ruled out the possibility of cold wave conditions across the country during both October 8-14 and October 15-21. No warm nights are expected during either period.

For October 8-14, weekly minimum temperatures are likely to remain near normal over many parts of the country. However, temperatures may be 1-3°C above normal in isolated parts of north-west India on some days.

Below-normal minimum temperatures, by 1-3°C, are also likely over some parts of West Rajasthan and north-eastern India on certain days.

During October 15-21, minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal over many parts of the country. Some parts of South Haryana and adjoining Rajasthan, along with Arunachal Pradesh, may experience near-normal to below-normal minimum temperatures on certain days.

The IMD's weekly assessment also noted that average maximum temperatures during the previous week were 2-4°C above normal in parts of western, eastern and north-eastern India, as well as along the west coast. Minimum temperatures were 1-3°C above normal in parts of western, eastern and adjoining central India.

India records 72% rainfall deficit in October so far

India recorded 72% less rainfall than the Long Period Average (LPA) during the week preceding the IMD's assessment. The cumulative rainfall deficit for the country also stood at 72% below the LPA for October 1-7.

The IMD's outlook indicates that rainfall patterns are likely to vary considerably across regions over the next two weeks, with southern India expected to receive more rainfall as the Northeast Monsoon sets in.