Operation Sindoor: India’s air superiority forced Pakistan to seek ceasefire, says European analysis

India’s air superiority during the May 7–10, 2025 conflict coerced Pakistan into seeking a ceasefire, according to a detailed European military analysis of Operation Sindoor, which examined the four-day air war between the two countries, reports TOI.

The report, titled Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025), has been authored by Adrien Fontanellaz and published by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military history and strategic studies institution founded in 1969. The organisation positions itself as a neutral, non-governmental forum for professional military research.

Assessing the aerial conflict, the report stated that the initial phase saw the Pakistan Air Force achieve a tactical advantage by shooting down several Indian fighters, but it later failed to execute effective strikes over Indian territory. These attempts were countered by India’s integrated air defence system, whose effectiveness emerged as one of the key surprises of the conflict. The analysis added that the Indian Air Force subsequently degraded Pakistan’s air defence network and concluded the conflict with strikes on major Pakistani Air Force bases, achieving clear air superiority that led Islamabad to request a ceasefire.


The report noted that while the Indian government did not acknowledge the loss of any fighter aircraft, including Rafale jets, it assessed the loss of at least one Indian Rafale on the night of May 7, 2025, as significant in shaping Western perceptions and media coverage. It described the confrontation as a large-scale clash between two capable air forces operating advanced aircraft such as the J-10C and Rafale, supported by fourth-generation fleets, sophisticated integrated air defence systems, and force multipliers.

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On the broader strategic implications, the analysis highlighted that Operation Sindoor resulted in conventional military clashes of considerable magnitude between two de facto nuclear-armed states with differing nuclear doctrines, creating a high risk of escalation with potentially catastrophic consequences. The report added that the episode offered valuable lessons in tactical and operational planning, underscoring the close interlinking of military action and communication strategies, and reaffirming the critical role of long-range strikes.

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Pahalgam attack and its aftermath

The conflict followed the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, in which Pakistan-backed attackers killed 26 people after targeting civilians based on religion, marking a shift towards attempts to incite communal violence within India. In response, India launched Operation Sindoor to target the terror infrastructure behind the attack.

Following heavy damage during the operation, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations contacted his Indian counterpart, and both sides agreed to halt all firing and military actions on land, air and sea with effect from 1700 hours IST on May 10, 2025. The report noted that despite the ceasefire, waves of UAVs and small drones subsequently intruded into Indian civilian and military areas, all of which were intercepted.

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Among the decisive measures taken under Operation Sindoor was India’s decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism. The report highlighted that Pakistan depends on the Indus river system for about 80% of its agricultural land and 93% of its total water use, supporting 237 million people and contributing roughly one-fourth of its GDP. For India, suspension of the treaty removed long-standing restrictions on infrastructure development in Jammu and Kashmir, enabling greater control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers and facilitating new irrigation and hydropower projects across Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab and Haryana.

India also closed the Integrated Check Post at Attari with immediate effect, suspended all bilateral trade with Pakistan, halted exports of key goods such as onions, and banned imports including cement and textiles, effectively severing the primary land-based trade route between the two countries.