Nostradamus US midterm election predictions: American forecaster Allan Lichtman has made two bold prediction for midterm polls results, Donald Trump

American historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman, popularly known as the 'American Nostradamus', has made a bold prediction ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections. He believes Democrats have a strong chance of wresting control of both chambers of the US Congress from President Donald Trump's Republican Party. Lichtman has given Democrats more than a 90 per cent chance of winning back the House of Representatives. He has also raised their chances of capturing the Senate to 70 per cent, suggesting that Republicans could face a major political setback just two years into Trump's second presidential term.

The prediction is particularly significant because Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. A Democratic victory could substantially weaken Trump's ability to push through his legislative agenda during the remaining two years of his presidency. The 2026 US midterm elections are being held on Tuesday, November 3, with voters deciding the balance of power in Congress and several important state-level positions.

What has Allan Lichtman predicted for the 2026 US midterm elections?

Lichtman believes Democrats are well-positioned to make significant gains and could take control of both the House and the Senate.


His latest assessment gives Democrats:

• House of Representatives: More than 90 per cent chance of regaining control.
• Senate: 70 per cent chance of winning back control, an increase from his earlier estimate of 67 per cent.

Lichtman has suggested that Democrats could secure a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate. However, he has acknowledged that winning the upper chamber would be considerably more difficult than taking the House. He has identified Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as potential Democratic gains in the Senate. He has also discussed the closely watched Michigan contest between Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.

Lichtman believes El-Sayed could become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. His prediction has attracted considerable attention because a Democratic takeover of Congress would give the opposition party greater powers to scrutinise the Trump administration and challenge its policies.

Why does Lichtman believe Democrats could win?

Lichtman has pointed to several political developments that, according to him, are working against Republicans. These include Trump's approval ratings, voter preferences in congressional surveys, Democratic voter enthusiasm and early voting trends.

Here are some of the factors behind his prediction.

1. Trump's declining popularity

Lichtman believes the Republican Party could suffer because of Trump's low approval ratings. He has cited historical trends suggesting that when a US president has particularly poor approval ratings, the party controlling the White House tends to lose congressional seats during midterm elections.

According to Lichtman, the historical average in such circumstances is a loss of around 40 House seats and six Senate seats for the president's party. However, he has clarified that these figures represent historical trends rather than his specific prediction for the 2026 elections.

2. Democrats leading in congressional preference polls

Another factor is the generic congressional ballot. This survey asks voters which political party they would prefer to control Congress, without asking them to choose between individual candidates. Lichtman has pointed to Democratic leads of approximately seven to 11 percentage points in these surveys. He believes this indicates that Democrats have an advantage in the national political environment.

3. Higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters

Voter enthusiasm is another important factor in his assessment. Lichtman believes Democratic supporters are showing greater interest in participating in the elections than Republican voters. He has also pointed to early voting trends, which he believes indicate an advantage for Democrats. However, early voting numbers alone cannot establish which party will ultimately win, as voting patterns differ across states.

4. Republican vulnerability in important Senate races

Lichtman believes Democrats have opportunities in several traditionally competitive states. Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are among the states he has identified as possible Democratic pickups. A victory in these contests could help Democrats overcome the Republican advantage in the Senate.

Who is Allan Lichtman, the American Nostradamus?

Allan Lichtman is an American historian and professor at American University in Washington, DC. He became internationally recognised for developing a presidential election forecasting system called the '13 Keys to the White House' in 1981, alongside Russian mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

Unlike conventional election forecasts that primarily depend on opinion polls, the system evaluates 13 political, economic and historical factors to predict whether the party controlling the White House will retain power. The framework examines factors such as economic performance, social unrest, political scandals, foreign policy developments and the popularity of the incumbent administration.


Lichtman's predictions have attracted attention over the decades because he correctly forecast several major US presidential election outcomes, including Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden's victory in 2020. However, his record suffered a major setback in 2024.

He predicted that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would defeat Trump in the presidential election. Trump eventually won, making it a high-profile forecasting failure for Lichtman. He later acknowledged that the unusual circumstances surrounding Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and the influence of misinformation had complicated his assessment.

Is Lichtman using his 13 Keys system to predict the 2026 midterms?

Interestingly, his latest prediction is not a direct outcome of his famous 13 Keys to the White House system. The framework was specifically developed to forecast US presidential elections. The 2026 midterms are different because voters are choosing congressional representatives and other state-level officials.

Lichtman has instead based his assessment on historical midterm trends, presidential approval ratings, congressional preference polls, voter enthusiasm and early voting patterns. He has also cautioned that historical patterns are not guarantees of future election results. This distinction is important, particularly after his incorrect prediction in the 2024 presidential election.

What happens if Democrats win control of Congress?

A Democratic victory in the midterm elections could significantly change the political environment for Trump. If Democrats take control of the House, they would gain control of important congressional committees and greater authority over legislative proceedings and investigations.

A Democratic-controlled Senate could also complicate the administration's efforts to secure confirmations for senior government positions and judicial appointments. If Democrats manage to capture both chambers, Trump could face a considerably more difficult political environment during the final two years of his presidency.

However, Lichtman's prediction is not an election result. The actual outcome will depend on votes counted across individual congressional and state-level contests. With Republicans defending their control of Congress, the November 3 midterms could become an important test of Trump's political standing and the strength of the Democratic opposition.