Is cautious ‘Elephant-Dragon’ tango making a comeback as Donald Trump tightens trade screws against India?

Just as the US announced new tariffs, raising it to 50 % on Indian exports, a cautious thaw appears to be taking shape in India-China relations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, External Affiar Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's recent visits to China signal a tentative improvement in bilateral ties, which have remained tense since the 2020 Galwan clashes, even as friction continues on trade, technology, and security fronts.

Signs of cautious re-engagement emerge

Diplomatic activity between India and China has picked up pace in recent weeks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit China for the first time in seven years. Efforts are also underway to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, reflecting an attempt to engage on regional and global platforms.

Last month, as per an ET report, India signaled willingness to consider reviving the long-inactive Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, following renewed interest from Moscow. Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov had urged the resumption of the RIC format. Speaking at a conference, Lavrov said, "I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika -- Russia, India, China which was established many years ago on the initiative of Yevgeny Primakov."

NSA visit, ministerial engagements underline dialogue effort

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s recent visit to China focused on strategic and border security matters. His trip follows earlier visits by India’s foreign and defence ministers, suggesting a coordinated effort to keep diplomatic channels open even as border tensions remain unresolved.

Defence minister holds firm at SCO meeting

In June, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China. He refused to back a joint statement that, according to Indian officials, would have weakened India's position on the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. As a result, the SCO did not issue a joint statement due to disagreements over terrorism.

Direct flights still remain on hold

India and China are also in talks to resume direct passenger flights, which were suspended in 2020 due to the pandemic and border tensions. Both sides have agreed to expediate steps to resume the flights but officials have not provided any timeline for the same.

China joins BRICS in terrorism condemnation

At the BRICS summit in Brazil, all member nations, including China, signed a joint statement condemning terrorism — marking a rare instance of alignment on India’s security concerns. The statement specifically condemned the Pahalgam attack, where India had earlier faced pushback in other forums. India blamed Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam attack, in which 26 tourists were killed by terrorists.

Trade friction continues beneath surface diplomacy

Despite ongoing diplomatic contacts, trade tensions persist. China recently delayed the shipment of a German-made tunnel boring machine intended for India’s Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train project.

Earlier this year, China temporarily halted rare earth exports to India, affecting the electric vehicle manufacturing sector. Some Indian producers warned of possible disruptions in production.

The India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) has also alleged that China is restricting the export of capital equipment vital for electronics manufacturing in India, potentially undercutting India’s efforts to become an electronics production hub.

Apple’s India expansion hit by Chinese engineer recall

In July, about 300 Chinese engineers working at Foxconn's Indian plants were reportedly ordered to return to China. The move was widely seen as an attempt to delay Apple’s supply chain shift to India and slow the production ramp-up of iPhones.

US pressure grows amid tariff escalation

The latest US tariff hike on Indian exports comes amid growing friction over India’s energy ties with Russia. The White House has defended the 50% tariff as part of its broader strategic response to countries continuing trade with Moscow.

A bill pending in the US Senate proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries that do not align with US policy on Russia, which could further strain India’s export-driven sectors. China faces similar scrutiny from Washington.

Strategic recalibration or temporary adjustment?

While backchannel diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, and possible high-level visits point to cautious re-engagement with China, it remains unclear whether India’s broader strategic posture is shifting. The Galwan incident, trade disputes, and regional security concerns continue to shape relations.

At the same time, the rising economic pressure from the US adds a new layer of complexity. Whether this pushes India to hedge more visibly between Washington and Beijing remains an open question, shaped by both external pressures and domestic strategic priorities.