Hotter summer & less rain this year? What WMO, IMD predict about heatwaves and monsoon in India

A recent update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised fresh concerns about the possibility of an El Niño developing later this year, a development that could potentially affect India’s monsoon.

While experts say it is too early to make definite predictions, El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker or irregular monsoon rainfall in India. As per a TOI report, scientists say the situation will become clearer in the coming months as climate patterns evolve.

What Does the Latest WMO Update Say?

According to the latest assessment from the World Meteorological Organization, there is a growing likelihood that El Niño conditions could emerge in the second half of the year.


Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centre suggest that the probability of El Niño may rise to around 40% during the May–July period. Climate experts say the phenomenon, if it develops, is likely to be moderate in intensity, although current projections still carry considerable uncertainty.

Why Could El Niño Affect India’s Monsoon?

El Niño refers to the periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns, which can influence rainfall and temperature across many parts of the world.

In India, El Niño events often lead to below-average monsoon rainfall, which can affect agriculture, water availability and overall economic activity.

The phenomenon typically has the opposite effect of La Niña, which is usually associated with stronger monsoon rains in the Indian subcontinent.

Are Heatwaves Already Linked to Climate Signals?

Alongside the El Niño watch, the WMO has also noted a global signal for above-average land surface temperatures during the March–May period due to various climate factors.

India is already experiencing this trend. According to the India Meteorological Department, several parts of the country are facing heatwave to severe heatwave conditions.

The weather department recently forecast that:

• Temperatures may remain 5–7°C above normal in parts of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
• Day temperatures could be 4–6°C above normal across northwest India, including the Delhi–NCR region, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh in the coming days.
• Southeastern peninsular India may experience temperatures 2–3°C above normal over the next five days.

What Are Experts Saying About the Situation?

Climate scientists say it is still too early to conclude whether El Niño will significantly disrupt the monsoon.

Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, noted that current predictions come with large uncertainties.

According to him, a clearer picture is likely to emerge by June as more data becomes available. For now, experts advise closely monitoring climate indicators rather than drawing early conclusions.

Why Are El Niño Forecasts Important?

The World Meteorological Organization says seasonal climate forecasts play a vital role in helping governments and industries prepare for potential impacts.

Celeste Saulo noted that early predictions of El Niño and La Niña can help countries minimise economic losses and plan for sectors sensitive to climate conditions.

These include:

• Agriculture
• Water management
• Energy production
• Public health planning

Scientists will continue monitoring ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific Ocean over the coming months. If warming continues and reaches key thresholds, an El Niño episode could formally develop later this year.

For now, experts emphasise that India’s monsoon outlook remains uncertain, and clearer forecasts will emerge closer to the start of the rainy season.

Inputs from TOI