Hanging glacier above Badrinath could trigger avalanche affecting helipad, roads and nearly 400 buildings: Study

A hanging glacier overlooking Badrinath in Uttarakhand's Chamoli district could pose an avalanche threat to 398 buildings and several critical facilities, including a helipad, parking areas and roads, an international study has found, as per TOI report. Simulations conducted by researchers suggest that a high-mobility avalanche could also affect agricultural land and forest cover, although the findings do not point to an imminent glacier collapse.

The assessment identified one of three glaciers examined as posing the highest potential threat, with a simulated high-mobility avalanche capable of affecting 398 buildings, agricultural land, forests, a helipad, parking facilities and transport links.

Published on Wednesday in the international journal Landslides, the research estimated that as much as 3.87 hectares of agricultural land and 15.57 hectares of forest cover could also fall within the affected area. The assessment further identified 2.66 km of transport infrastructure among the assets potentially exposed to an avalanche.


However, the researchers stressed that their findings were based on computer simulations and did not indicate that a glacier collapse was imminent. Nor did the study establish that the buildings and facilities identified would necessarily be damaged.

One glacier identified as the highest potential threat

The researchers examined three hanging glaciers overlooking Badrinath in Chamoli district and identified Site 2 as the most hazardous of the locations assessed. According to their estimates, this glacier could release approximately 5.89 million cubic metres of ice.

Its steep terrain was a major factor in the assessment. The glacier has a surface slope of 34.57 degrees and a bed slope of 30.64 degrees. Researchers said the combination of these gradients and the landscape below could increase the distance and extent of an avalanche's movement towards the town.

Hanging glaciers are ice formations situated on steep mountain slopes. When portions of these formations break away, the falling ice can travel rapidly down slopes and into valleys, potentially threatening settlements, roads and other infrastructure in its path.

Computer simulations assess possible avalanche impact

The study, titled Vulnerability assessment of hanging-glacier avalanches in Badrinath Township, Central Himalayas, India, was carried out by researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, the Defence Geoinformatics Research Establishment (DGRE) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and the University of Cambridge in the UK.

To assess the potential danger, the team used remote-sensing information to map possible ice-release zones and calculate the volume of ice they could contain. The researchers then employed the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model to examine how an avalanche might travel under low-, medium- and high-mobility conditions. Different friction parameters were used to simulate these scenarios.

The modelling indicated that changes in the assumed movement conditions had a relatively limited effect on avalanche speed, flow height and impact pressure. Variations between the three sites were generally below 7%, suggesting that potentially dangerous events could occur even without the most extreme movement conditions.

The researchers also found that the quantity of ice released was not the only factor determining how far an avalanche could travel. The configuration of channels and the surrounding landscape downstream could enable even comparatively smaller ice masses to cover substantial distances.

Study calls for monitoring and better preparedness

The findings underline the potential exposure of Badrinath's buildings and public infrastructure, particularly because the town is a major destination on the Char Dham pilgrimage circuit. Depending on the path taken by an avalanche, roads, parking areas and other facilities could be affected.

The researchers recommended more detailed assessments of individual sites, along with stronger monitoring arrangements, early-warning systems, improved land-use planning and public awareness initiatives. These measures, they said, could help limit the consequences of possible glacier-related hazards.

One of the study's authors also referred to the flash floods and rock-ice avalanches that affected northern Nepal in August, saying the disaster highlighted the wider consequences of instability in mountain regions. The author noted that the Nepal incident and the scenarios examined in Badrinath could involve different failure mechanisms, but both demonstrated the importance of scientific risk assessments, monitoring, early-warning preparedness and protecting vulnerable communities.

The researchers reiterated that the Badrinath assessment presents possible outcomes derived from simulations. It should not be interpreted as a prediction of an imminent glacier failure or confirmation that the identified areas will be hit by an avalanche.