El Niño officially returns in 2026: WMO warns climate event could strengthen between July and September, raising risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall

A powerful El Niño event is officially underway, and global weather experts are warning that its effects could be felt across multiple continents in the coming months.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations' weather and climate agency, announced on Friday that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen rapidly between July and September 2026. Forecasts suggest sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could rise more than 2°C above average, a level associated with a strong El Niño event.

The development raises concerns about an increased risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events around the world.


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WMO Warns of More Extreme Weather

According to the WMO, the strengthening El Niño is likely to influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific Ocean.

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WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the climate phenomenon could intensify weather extremes in many regions. "This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world."

The agency said it has already launched a coordinated global response involving UN agencies, governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health.

The goal is to improve seasonal forecasting, climate services and early warning systems so countries can better prepare for potential impacts.

Which Regions Could Be Affected?

Meteorologists expect El Niño to reshape rainfall and temperature patterns across several parts of the world.

Areas Likely to Receive Less Rainfall

The WMO forecasts below-normal rainfall across:

• Parts of the Indian subcontinent
• Much of Australia
• Parts of the tropical Indian Ocean
• The Greater Horn of Africa
• Some regions of Central America
• The Caribbean
• Northwestern South America

Reduced rainfall in these areas could increase the risk of drought, water shortages and agricultural stress.

Areas Likely to Receive More Rainfall

Above-normal rainfall is expected over:

• The central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
• Parts of the northern Gulf of Guinea in Africa

In some regions, heavier rainfall could raise the risk of flooding and related disruptions.

Europe May See a North-South Divide

The WMO also expects contrasting weather conditions across Europe.

Current forecasts suggest:

• Southern Europe could experience wetter-than-average conditions
• Northern Europe could be drier than normal

However, the agency noted that confidence in these projections remains relatively low compared with forecasts for other regions.

Warmer Oceans Could Add to Climate Concerns

Beyond the Pacific Ocean, ocean temperatures are expected to remain above average in other key regions.

The WMO said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are likely across the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. These unusually warm waters can influence rainfall patterns, tropical cyclone activity and regional climate conditions.

Scientists will closely monitor how these ocean temperature anomalies interact with El Niño over the coming months.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most influential climate patterns on Earth.

It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and can last anywhere from nine to twelve months.

Although El Niño originates in the Pacific, it affects weather systems around the globe by altering atmospheric circulation patterns.

Its impacts vary from region to region and can change depending on its strength and interaction with other climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole. As a result, not every country experiences the same effects during an El Niño year.

Why the 2026 El Niño Matters

With forecasters expecting the event to strengthen quickly, governments and weather agencies are increasing preparedness efforts. A strong El Niño can influence food production, water resources, energy demand and disaster risks, making early warnings especially important.

As the climate pattern intensifies through the second half of 2026, experts will be watching closely for signs of rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and an increased frequency of extreme weather events worldwide.

(With TOI inputs)