Donald Trump losing the 'Epic' Iran war? How Tehran is quietly flipping the battlefield narrative against the mighty US and Israel

The conflict across the Middle East continues to rage after the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran, killing the country's supreme leader on 28 February. The US-Iran war has entered the 20th day and Iran has responded by launching attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf. The fighting has escalated quickly, spreading to Lebanon, with casualties and damage mounting on all sides.

As the conflict enters its third week, the United States and Israel appear to have made significant military progress against Iran. However, emerging assessments suggest that these gains may not translate into long-term strategic success, raising questions about the broader outcome of the war.

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Who is winning the US-Iran war?

According to a report by The Times of India, the US-led campaign has inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. Several senior Iranian officials have been eliminated, missile launchers destroyed, and key command centres targeted. Israeli forces have also claimed deep penetration into Iran’s internal security network as part of the ongoing operation.

At a tactical level, the offensive appears coordinated and effective. Military strikes have focused on weakening Iran’s ability to respond through conventional means. Early indicators suggest that Iran’s operational capacity has been reduced in several areas, particularly in missile deployment and command structures.

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Is Trump winning the Iran war?

At first glance, Donald Trump appears to have the upper hand in the Iran conflict. On the battlefield, the US and Israel have delivered major blows. Iran’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was reportedly eliminated early, while multiple senior military and political figures have also been killed. Key infrastructure, missile systems, and internal security networks have been heavily targeted, pushing Tehran onto the defensive.

But wars are not decided only by military strikes or leadership losses. They are shaped by endurance, economic fallout, global alliances, and control over the final outcome. And this is where the situation becomes more complex.

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Reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted, with oil prices surging nearly 45% since the conflict began. Gulf nations have faced over 2,000 missile and drone attacks targeting bases, infrastructure, and civilian areas. The International Energy Agency has called this the worst oil crisis since the 1970s, while global airlines warn of rising fuel costs, higher fares, and route cuts.

These developments are not side effects—they are central to Iran’s strategy.

Analysts suggest that despite taking heavy damage, Iran retains three critical advantages: geography, time, and asymmetric warfare. The goal is not to win conventionally but to raise costs globally and turn military success into strategic uncertainty. This creates a key risk for Trump—winning early battles while losing control over how the war ends.

At the diplomatic level, cracks are also visible. Reports suggest frustration within the US over allies refusing to support efforts in the Gulf. Trump publicly insisted, “WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”, highlighting tensions within traditional alliances. European leaders have distanced themselves, with some openly rejecting involvement in the conflict.

This isolation adds another layer of risk. Without allied support, the war begins to look less like a coalition effort and more like a unilateral move with global consequences.

The bigger concern lies in the long-term outcome. Experts argue that while Iran has been weakened in the first phase, it still has the capacity to prolong the conflict. By sustaining pressure through targeted disruptions—especially in oil supply routes—Iran can keep global markets unstable and increase political pressure on Washington.

There is also uncertainty within Iran itself. While some believe internal unrest could weaken the regime, others warn that external attacks may actually strengthen unity. History shows that foreign pressure can reduce dissent rather than trigger rebellion.

The Big Picture

The war now presents a divided scoreboard. Militarily, the US and Israel are ahead. Strategically, Iran may still be shaping the outcome.

The key question is no longer who is winning today—but who will define the end of the conflict. If oil prices remain high, global disruption continues, and allies stay distant, the narrative could shift quickly. For now, Trump may be winning the opening phase. But the final result remains uncertain—and that is where the real stakes lie.

(With TOI inputs)