Can recent Covid increase lead to another 'wave'? Here's what virologist said

With Kerala witnessing a significant surge in Covid-19 cases and the detection of the JN-1 sub-variant in the state, Karnataka is on high alert. Despite the rise in cases in Kerala, most patients are recovering without requiring treatment.

Virologist Dr. Jacob John emphasised in an exclusive interview with TOI that all Omicron sub-variants, including JN.1, are considerably less virulent than earlier variants. While acknowledging that any new sub-variant of Omicron appears to have a slight advantage in transmission, Dr. John mentioned that JN.1 could be present throughout India if tested for. Here are the key points from the interview:

Understanding JN.1:

JN.1 is a sub-variant within the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The exact origin of JN.1 is not precisely known, but it was first reported in Luxembourg, Europe, earlier this month.

Preparedness in Indian states:
Considering the slight advantage in transmission of new Omicron sub-variants, including JN.1, neighbouring states like Karnataka should enhance their Covid preparedness. Dr. John suggested that Kerala's proactive approach might be why the sub-variant is detected there ahead of other states.

Potential impact and concerns:
Dr. John clarified that all Omicron sub-variants, including JN.1, are less virulent than earlier variants. Vulnerability to severe disease increases for individuals above 70 and those with comorbidities. Protective measures, such as avoiding crowds, wearing masks, and maintaining good hand hygiene, are essential.

Possibility of another covid wave:
Dr. John deemed another "wave" of Covid highly unlikely, as the current disease pattern is "endemic" with low and steady numbers. JN.1 has spread to many countries, and while it may cause fluctuations, a massive wave is improbable.

By staying vigilant, implementing precautionary measures, and focusing on protecting vulnerable populations, the impact of JN.1 and other variants can be mitigated, he said.

Inputs from TOI