Bangladesh election 2026: Issues, dates, what opinion polls are suggesting and how results will affect India relations

Bangladesh will hold its national election on February 12, 2026, its first since the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina after her 15-year rule by Gen Z-led ‘Monsoon Revolution’ and 18 months of interim rule under Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus.

Hasina's Awami League has been banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act and will not contest. Surveys suggest nearly half of its former voters now favour the BNP, while about 30 percent lean toward Jamaat-e-Islami. BNP chairman Tarique Rahman, who recently returned after 17 years in exile, is a leading contender for prime minister if the party performs strongly.

Pre-election surveys indicate a close contest between the BNP and Jamaat, with limited support for other parties. Jamaat is drawing younger and more educated voters, while the BNP is attracting working-age voters, farmers and labourers. The National Citizen Party, formed after the 2024 student uprising, has aligned with Jamaat in an 11-party coalition aimed at disrupting dynastic politics. Voters aged 18 to 37 account for 44 percent of the electorate and could prove decisive.

Key issues weighing on Bangladeshi voters

According to Reuters, voters are focused on five major concerns. Corruption ranks as the top issue in opinion polls, with Bangladesh performing poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Both the BNP and Jamaat have made anti-graft commitments central to their campaigns.

Inflation remains a significant concern, standing at 8.58 percent in January, with rising prices cited by more than two-thirds of respondents. Economic development is another key issue, as Bangladesh, once among Asia’s fastest-growing economies, has struggled since the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions to its export-driven garment sector during the 2024 unrest.

Also Read: Why is Bangladesh holding a national referendum alongside its general election?

Employment is also a critical pressure point, with around 40 percent of the population under 30 and job creation seen as essential for the next government.

Bangladesh and India relation post Sheikh Hasina's ouster

Relations with India have deteriorated since Hasina fled there after unrest that killed about 1,400 people. In November, she was convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death. India has declined extradition, citing the political nature of the offence.

Rising anti-India rhetoric, violence and attacks on minorities, including the 13 million-strong Hindu population, have heightened tensions, though Dhaka maintains such incidents are politically motivated. India has halved its financial assistance to Bangladesh in its latest budget.

China and Pakistan outreach

The ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 led to the return of Muhammad Yunus who has since tried to strengthen relations with India's western and northern neighbour.

During a March 2025 visit to China, Yunus described Bangladesh as the “only guardian of the ocean” for India’s northeastern states, remarks that drew concern in New Delhi. China is involved in major infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including modernization of Mongla Port and a Teesta River water management project, an issue under stalled negotiations with India.

Pakistan and Bangladesh share a complex history, but Dhaka has recently improved ties with Islamabad, marking a notable shift despite decades of strained relations since Bangladesh’s 1971 independence. Recent steps include easing visa and trade restrictions, launching direct sea links between Chittagong and Karachi, and discussing enhanced defence cooperation, including the possible procurement of the China-Pakistan jointly produced JF-17 fighter aircraft.

India-Bangladesh cricket ties

Bangladesh have refused to travel to India for the 2026 Men’s T20 World Cup, citing concerns over the “safety and well-being” of players amid worsening political ties. The move followed BCCI's order to IPL team Kolkata Knight Riders to release Mustafizur Rahman from its squad.

Bangladesh were scheduled to play their group matches in Kolkata and Mumbai, beginning with an opening fixture against West Indies at Eden Gardens on February 7.