WTO expects trade to grow 6.5% in 2011

GENEVA: Global commerce will grow 6.5% this year after expanding a record 14.5% in 2010 as economies from China to Brazil recover from the worst recession in six decades, the World Trade Organisation said. WTO said it sees a "greater degree of uncertainty to any forecast" for 2011 as growing inflation, unrest in the Middle East and the earthquake in Japan have "tilted the balance of risk toward the downside ."

Developing economies will lead trade growth, with a forecast 9.5% rise, compared with 4.5% for developed nations. Commerce expanded an average 6% yearly during 1990-2008 , WTO said. It used trade volumes rather than values for its assessment to avoid distortions caused by changes in commodity prices or exchange rates. "Trade growth is stabilising at levels that are both more conventional and sustainable," WTO director-general Pascal Lamy said. He added that "the hangover from the financial crisis is still with us," urging the trade group’s 153 members to open their markets.

Emerging markets led the world out of the recession triggered by the banking crisis in developed nations, with China replacing Japan as the world’s second-largest economy last year.

While most countries have emerged from recessions, the WTO continues to press governments to take steps to stimulate commerce and bolster the global trading sys-tem . Trade forecasts are based on economic growth of 2.2% in developed countries and 5.8% in the rest of the world.