Zero-Covid, vaccine nationalism: How Xi Jinping-led China has put the world at risk again

China is not known for being an "open book" about what is going on inside the country, government, or even the Communist Party. Keeping information under wraps is an art successive Chinese regimes have practised with impunity, sometimes with far reaching effects. The Covid pandemic is no different.

Few doubt that the pandemic spread from Wuhan- but what was the "ground zero?" Was it the sea-food market, or Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)? Did the virus mutate from another species before jumping to humans, or was it accidentally leaked from the WIV lab? More than three years since it all began, much of it is still shrouded in mystery.

Lockdown: China 1st to enforce, early to lift

China started enforcing quarantine and lockdown of cities and later whole provinces from late January 2020. Wuhan was the fist to adopt the measure, on Jan 23. Several other cities gradually followed suit.

Italy was among the first in Europe to impose a nationwide quarantine, on March 9. India went into lockdown on March 24. UK too announced restrictions around the same time. Most states in US also announced lockdowns between late March-early April, 2020.

Most countries continued with quarantine measures for several weeks. But in China, much of the general restrictions had been relaxed by early April 2020. It was withdrawn from Wuhan itself on April 8.

How much good did China's short lockdown serve? Going by official data released by Beijing, it was very effective. However veracity of these figures have been questioned by experts.


China's strict zero-Covid, and the abrupt U-turn
By early 2022, most of the world was looking forward to a return to normalcy. Mass vaccinations had proved vastly effective, the pandemic looked under control, and only nominal Covid restrictions remained in most countries. The approach shifted to "living with the virus."

The exception once again- China.

Under a zero-Covid approach of "of control and maximum suppression," the regime of Xi Jinping enforced strict localized lockdowns for even sporadic, isolated Covid cases.

The Chinese government persisted with the policy despite criticism and questionable results.

By the autumn of 2022, the zero-Covid approach had badly impacted the economy- essentials were in short supply and unemployment was on the rise. This triggered a popular backlash rarely witnessed in China.

Unprecedented protests were witnessed on the streets of Beijing and other major cities, and even in Xinjiang province, where China employs hardline measures to suppress all political dissent. Anti-CCP and anti-Xi slogans were also raised from the congregations, on streets and university campuses.

Whether a result of the protests or not, China announced an end to the zero-Covid policy in early December.

China missed hybrid immunity
Mass inoculation and some exposure to the virus proved effective in limiting infections, and also the severity of the disease in most countries. A hybrid herd immunity seemed to be an effective strategy in the fight against Covid-19.

But by choosing not to "live with the virus," China missed what most of the world had betted on.

A vast section of its population was left vulnerable to the disease when zero-Covid was abandoned, almost overnight.

China's zero-Covid strategy really delivered a double whammy.

'Made in China' vaccines extracted a price?
China has been cold to overtures of help with vaccines from other countries, choosing instead to rely on those developed indigenously.

It has employed 7 vaccines for its mass inoculation program. But their efficacies have been questioned by experts. Several studies have shown that they fall way short of some of those used in the West.

Endemic phase still a distant post?
Not long back, WHO officials had expressed hope that Covid-19 might be entering an endemic phase by early 2023. But the massive surge in China, blamed on the BF.7 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant, is forcing a rethink.

Will the current wave of infections be contained within China, or will it spill over to other countries?

The answer to this all important question will decide the trajectory of the global battle against Covid in the days ahead.