World goods trade gains momentum despite Middle East conflict, AI demand cushions blow: WTO

Global merchandise trade continued to show resilience in the third quarter of 2026, with the World Trade Organization’s Goods Trade Barometer rising to 102.0 in July from 101.7 in June, signalling that trade volumes remain above trend despite geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over trade policies.

A barometer reading above 100 indicates above-trend merchandise trade volumes.

The latest reading also suggests that goods trade growth is gaining momentum, with strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence helping offset the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.


The electronic components index recorded the strongest reading among the barometer’s components at 104.9, reflecting robust demand for goods enabling artificial intelligence. The export orders index, which is considered highly predictive of future trade, rose to 103.5, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the months ahead.

International air freight and agricultural raw materials trade also remained firmly above trend, with readings of 102.8 and 102.6, respectively. The automotive products index stood at 101.5.

Container shipping was the only component to fall below the common baseline of 100, at 99.6, indicating that shipping activity has dipped slightly below trend.

The WTO said the component readings collectively suggest that merchandise trade growth has remained resilient despite elevated uncertainty around trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The organisation's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released in March, forecast world merchandise trade volume to grow 1.9% in 2026 under its baseline scenario. Under a high-energy-price scenario reflecting headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, growth was projected at 1.4%.

Sustained investment in artificial intelligence could add 0.5 percentage point to merchandise trade growth, the WTO had said.

Year-on-year growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained positive in the first quarter of 2026. However, the WTO said disruptions to trade through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully reflected in second-quarter trade data once those figures become available.

An update to the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report is due in October.