Will there be another American Civil War if Trump loses election?

What happened at the first midnight vote reflects the nationwide trend of a tight US presidential race. Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, kicked off Election Day with its traditional midnight vote, resulting in a tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, each securing three votes.

In recent days, Reuters correspondents spoke to more than 50 voters across the seven swing states that will determine the next president. They encountered an electorate on edge: Worried how the country will look should their preferred candidate lose, the other side will make trouble and the political divide will only grow deeper.

Many think the knife-edge contest between Harris and Trump indicates the possibility of Trump not conceding the election if Harris is declared the winner. This can lead to a repeat of the January 6 2021 attack on Capitol Hill when Trump supporters tried to overturn the reflection after Joe Biden was declared a winner. But this time many expect a more organised and wider attempt to stage a coup.

Americans staring at a Second Civil War?

As per an article in The Times, an election victory by a razor-thin margin can put America on a path to national insurgency marked by fake narratives. "From there, events would spiral into a breakdown of order on a scale not witnessed since the American Civil War of the 1860s. This is what could happen in the US over the next two weeks following tonight’s election," says The Times article. "As American voters choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, after the most turbulent presidential campaign in 50 years, experts have warned in a series of interviews that serious violence is almost inevitable. They disagree only on how catastrophic the escalation will be."

A recent story by The New Yorker narrates how many Americans now believe that the US could descend into political violence. Some are joining survivalist communities, canning food—and buying guns. And Trump losing the election could be a trigger for a civil war or at least widespread violence between Republican and Democrat supporters.

Michael Haas, a former political-science professor at the University of Hawaii, who published a book titled “Beyond Polarized American Democracy: From Mass Society to Coups and Civil War” told The New Yorker that the civil war could begin with an armed attempt to stop the counting of electoral votes in December. “They’ll start shooting,” Haas said. “And in the chaos they — these pro-Trump anarchists — become the party of power. That’s where Sinclair Lewis hit it right on the button.” (Lewis’s novel “It Can’t Happen Here,” from 1935, imagines a fascist leader imposing totalitarian rule over the United States.) “The reason they want anarchy is they will be in charge. They have the guns.”

The story references Barbara Walter, a professor at U.C. San Diego and an expert on civil war, who recently detailed a worst-case election scenario: "Trump loses, and protests of the result, inflamed by the former President, turn into riots. What’s left of the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys join in. Assassinations first target Republicans deemed traitorous.

“The Adam Kinzingers and Liz Cheneys of the world,” Walter said. The mob turns on minorities, immigrants, and other scapegoat communities. Judges are shot. The worst of this violence occurs in fairly diverse states—Georgia, Nevada, Arizona—as it did during Reconstruction in places where whites felt their privilege endangered, such as Birmingham and Memphis. An economically powerful red state, perhaps Texas, attempts to secede. Ignoring the lessons of Ruby Ridge and Waco, the Harris Administration uses disproportionate force to deter other states from following suit. Innocent people die.

Everyday Americans are radicalized by the apparent validation of the extremists’ claim that federal power is the enemy. Civil war is on its way. Walter’s scenario gets foggy from there, but we know that economic growth declines during civil wars, as do health outcomes. Travel is hard. Most troubling to Walter, outside actors get involved. “China, Russia, and Iran would want to help Texas militias,” Walter told me. “Texas could become a dictatorship run by some crazy guy whose best friends are Putin and Xi Jinping.”

However, The New Yorker story says most experts think that another full-scale civil war is highly unlikely in the near term. An expert explained that it would take leadership, funding and a singularly explosive disagreement to start such a conflict.

However, many think widespread violence, if not a full-blown civil war, is very much likely if Trump loses. Timothy Snyder, a professor at Yale of totalitarian history who predicted that Trump’s 2020 election loss could lead to a coup attempt, has told Rolling Stone that Trump will, again, seek to use violence and intimidation to return to the White House, if he loses.

"Trump understands that dynamic of violence and fear. What they’re going to go for is violence to frighten everybody," Snyder told Rolling Stone in a recent interview. "This time, you’ll have people who sincerely believe that something wrong has happened, and that therefore you can’t trust normal channels of law — because they’re all part of the conspiracy against our guy Trump. Those people really are going to carry out acts of violence. And if you have violence, in say Arkansas and North Dakota or whatever, the notion is to create the same [2000] feeling: “So long as this isn’t settled, then there’s going to be terrible [consequences]. We need to get it settled in a way that this terrible stuff stops.” So that we all think, well, maybe it would be better if we let Trump win, because that will at least stop the violence."

A lot of Americans may not accept election result

A recent survey by YouGov plc, a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm, shows that most Americans think Trump will refuse to accept election results if he loses. The survey reveals many Americans don’t intend to accept the results of the presidential election as legitimate if their preferred candidate doesn’t win.

In the survey, 48% of Trump supporters said they will not accept Harris as the legitimate president while 33% of Harris supporters say they will not accept Trump as the legitimate president.

As per the YouGuv survey, if Harris wins the election and Trump doesn’t concede, 35% of Americans think it would be a major threat to democracy in the US. About as many (34%) say it would cause problems, but not be a major threat to democracy, while 14% say it would not cause many problems. Democrats (49%) are more likely than Republicans (23%) to say it would be a major threat to democracy in the US if Trump doesn’t concede in the event of a Harris victory. If Trump wins the election and Harris doesn’t concede, 22% of Americans think it would be a major threat to democracy in the US while 37% think it would cause problems, but not be a major threat to democracy. One in five (20%) say it would not cause many problems.

40% of Americans, including 73% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans, say Republican politicians encourage their supporters to act violently. 26% of Americans, including 4% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans, say Democratic politicians encourage their supporters to act violently.

What Trump said

Despite apprehensions among those opposed to Trump that he will not concede elections if he loses and might trigger a violent insurgency, Trump has accepted the possibility of losing the election.

ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl has revealed that he had a phone chat with Trump when he asked him whether he thought there was any way he could lose the election. The phone call took place on Sunday morning and Karl said Trump admitted that there's a possibility he could lose. "Yeah, I guess, you know," Trump said in response. “I guess you could lose, can lose. I mean, that happens, right?” he said. “But I think I have a pretty substantial lead. But, you could say — yeah, yeah, you could lose. Bad things could happen. You know, things happen, but it’s going to be interesting.”

What Trump campaign email said

Though Democrats apprehend that if Trump loses the election, he will not accept it and there might be a rerun of the 2021 riot, an email to the Trump campaign to the staff sent on Friday offered a clear-eyed view of what could happen in this coin-flip election, Axios reported. "The internal "Donald J. Trump Administrative Update," from co-campaign manager Susie Wiles, outlines post-election plans. It uses the phrases "should we be victorious," "regardless of the outcome of the election" and "God willing" — acknowledging that the race may or may not turn out in Trump's favor," the report said.

(With inputs from agencies)