Why Saudi Arabia may keep Israel out of its fight against Yemen’s Houthis despite escalating missile attacks, rising security threats

Saudi Arabia is now faced with a tough security decision, with increased missile and drone attacks being blamed on the Houthi rebels of Yemen. However, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is said to have opposed the Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, from getting Israel involved in the fight. The reason behind this opposition has been given by Netanyahu himself in an article by Haaretz: the Israeli PM sought the permission of Saudi Arabia through Washington.

According to the report from the Israeli newspaper, quoting an anonymous diplomatic source, the proposal was opposed by Mohammed bin Salman due to the possible public backlash following the open cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

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No confirmation of this exchange had been made officially by the authorities of Saudi Arabia.

The rejection shows the difficulties for Saudi Arabia in defending its land and critical infrastructure from the movement backed by Iran. It also demonstrates the limitations of the attempt to bring together the leaders of Riyadh and Jerusalem based on common security interests.

Why Saudi Arabia may resist Israeli military involvement

The immediate security threat is significant, as on October 10, an attack by the Houthis on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh resulted in the deaths of at least 13 people, while 300 more were wounded, as per Reuters.

Another incident occurred the very next day with one casualty and 11 injuries. The attacks affected airport activities and raised fears of Saudi Arabia's capacity to safeguard civilian facilities.

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Israel too has motives for weakening the Houthi organisation. They have targeted missiles and drones towards Israel and made threats towards navigation in the Red Sea region. The affiliation of the Houthi organisation with Tehran makes it part of the broader conflict in the region that involves Iran and Israel.

It is believed that the cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia regarding the Houthis might be a way to establish better relations. This idea was expressed by Israeli officials who believe that such military cooperation would help revive diplomatic relations, according to Haaretz.

However, the political move from the side of Saudi Arabia does not have any incentives at all since both countries share one common enemy. The leadership of Saudi Arabia will have to consider how much the military cooperation will affect their political partnership in the future.

This decision is not an indication that Saudi Arabia will soften their attitude towards the Houthis. Instead, it means that Saudi Arabia will keep full control over the military action and will not link it to any political collaboration, which is still under discussion.

Gaza remains a major obstacle to Saudi-Israeli normalisation

Saudi Arabia’s stance on diplomatic ties with Israel predated the recent flare-up in Yemen. Riyadh has insisted that normalisation should be contingent upon efforts to create an independent Palestinian state – a goal that became more politically important because of the Gaza conflict.

Israel-UAE-Bahrain relations were cemented in the Abraham Accords signed in 2020, while Morocco was working towards normalisation that same year.

Saudi Arabia did not sign up to the agreement, but the United States has continued to seek a wider deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Gaza war complicates these efforts. The losses suffered by Palestinians and destruction that has occurred there have stoked opposition to normalisation in the Arab world.

This puts Mohammed bin Salman at risk of receiving criticism that the Saudi government favours military cooperation between the two states above the question of Palestine.

The problem becomes very difficult to solve because Saudi Arabia has always stated that normalisation needs a process that will ensure that there is the creation of an independent Palestinian state, while the Israeli government is strongly against some of the suggestions regarding this issue.

In this regard, the request by Netanyahu poses problems.

If Israel uses its military together with Saudi Arabia to fight the Houthis, then it can be said that a significant milestone in military cooperation without formal diplomatic recognition has been achieved.

Riyadh faces the danger of developing closer ties with Israel without gaining the required concessions.

Iran, the Red Sea and the risk of a wider regional conflict

The presence of the Houthis in Yemen means that there is more to the fight than the security of Saudi Arabia. The Houthis’ activities affect maritime traffic that connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The disturbance in the region could lead to higher expenses for maritime traffic and energy exports.

The current situation in Yemen is putting the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran under strain once again. The two countries re-established diplomatic ties in 2023, when China brokered an agreement. While there are still many strategic disagreements between the countries, the establishment of new channels of communication helped with settling regional conflicts.

The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that he was willing to help negotiate a solution to the Saudi-Yemen conflict. The Iranian authorities also advised against military action as the only way to solve the problem.

This offer gives Riyadh a tricky situation to think about. There is the opinion that Iran is the main outside backer of the Houthis. Therefore, Tehran plays an essential role in the regional conflict.

Nevertheless, it is in the interests of Saudi Arabia not to let this clash turn into a larger war that could harm the country’s infrastructure, economy, and diplomacy.

Another consideration is the limitations of military actions.

They could impair the capabilities of the Houthi movement but could not destroy them completely, meaning that they would still be able to use their missiles and drones.

According to the AP, “the kingdom found it hard to respond to the latest attacks by the Houthis despite having an extensive armoury of cutting-edge weapons.”

Mohammed bin Salman’s rejection of direct Israeli involvement must be seen in this context of weighing security considerations, public sentiment and regional diplomacy. Saudi Arabia has ample justification for dealing with the Houthis, but also for avoiding an alliance that might increase its political vulnerability.

The question is whether it can bolster its defences without embroiling itself further in this dispute. For the time being, the reported disagreement about Israel’s involvement is evidence of the fact that a common enemy does not necessarily mean a common policy approach.