Why the Red Sea remains one of the world's most dangerous shipping routes

The Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, has once again emerged as a major geopolitical flashpoint after Iran warned that its campaign to pressure global energy markets could expand from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The warning has raised fears that the Iran conflict could threaten another critical shipping route, putting global energy supplies, international trade and maritime security under pressure.

Also Read: Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea gateway if US hits power network, sources say


The concern is significant because the Red Sea has become even more important after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

With Saudi Arabia shifting more crude exports through its Red Sea route to keep shipments flowing, any attack or blockade around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could affect one of the world’s last major alternatives for Gulf energy exports.

According to a Reuters report citing multiple sources, Iran has signalled that Yemen’s Houthi rebels could be prepared to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea if US attacks on Iran continue. The Houthis have reportedly positioned missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The latest threat has brought renewed attention to a waterway that has already faced repeated attacks, forcing shipping companies to reroute vessels, increasing costs and disrupting global supply chains.

Why is the Red Sea important for global trade?

The Red Sea is a narrow but strategically important waterway located between northeast Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

For centuries, it has served as a major trade route, but its importance increased significantly after the opening of Egypt’s Suez Canal in 1869. The canal created a direct maritime connection between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, allowing ships travelling between Asia and Europe to avoid the much longer route around Africa.

Today, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal together form one of the most important shipping corridors in the world.

Also Read: After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point

Every day, vessels carrying a wide range of goods pass through the route, including:

• Crude oil and petroleum products
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
• Food grains
• Electronics
• Automobiles
• Machinery
• Consumer goods

The southern entrance of the Red Sea is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean.

The northern end connects with the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal.

This makes the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal together a vital bridge between Asian manufacturing hubs and European markets.

Before Houthi attacks disrupted shipping in 2023, nearly 10% of global seaborne trade passed through Bab el-Mandeb annually.

Why has the Red Sea become strategically important for oil markets?

The Red Sea’s importance has increased further because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, with around one-fifth of global oil supplies traditionally passing through it.

After tensions disrupted traffic through Hormuz, Gulf countries began relying more heavily on alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, has used pipelines connecting its oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to continue exporting crude.

Saudi Arabia diverted more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to Yanbu, according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean.

Shipments from Yanbu averaged around 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks, compared with about 973,000 barrels per day during the same period last year.

Kpler data showed that petroleum volumes moving through Bab el-Mandeb reached 7.4 million barrels per day in June, accounting for around 7% of global oil output.

This has helped limit the impact of disruptions elsewhere. However, any serious threat to the Red Sea route could create pressure on global oil markets because both major energy corridors would face risks at the same time.

Why is the Red Sea considered dangerous?

The Red Sea is considered dangerous because of a combination of geography, regional conflicts and the presence of armed groups capable of targeting commercial vessels.

The biggest vulnerability is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The waterway is narrow, meaning ships have limited room to manoeuvre. Even limited attacks using missiles, drones or small boats can force shipping companies to temporarily suspend operations.

The route became a major security concern after Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking commercial vessels following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

The Houthis said they were targeting ships linked to Israel in support of Palestinians. However, their definition of vessels connected to Israel expanded, resulting in attacks affecting broader commercial shipping.

Major shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, diverted vessels away from the Red Sea and sent them around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.

The alternative route adds thousands of miles to journeys, increases fuel consumption and raises insurance and freight costs.

Who are the Houthis and why do they matter?

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are a Yemeni political and military movement that emerged in the northern province of Saada during the 1990s.

The group began as a movement opposing Yemen’s government and later became a major military force during Yemen’s civil war.

In 2014, the Houthis seized control of Yemen’s capital Sanaa, triggering a conflict with the internationally recognised government backed by Saudi Arabia and its allies.

The Houthis now control large parts of northern Yemen, including areas along the Red Sea coastline.

Iran supports the Houthis as part of its regional “Axis of Resistance”, which includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shiite militias.

However, the relationship is complicated. While Iran provides political and military support, the Houthis have their own domestic goals and do not always act directly on Tehran’s instructions.

The United States has accused Iran of providing weapons, funding and training to the Houthis. The group denies being an Iranian proxy and says it develops its own military capabilities.

What happened during earlier Red Sea attacks?

The Houthis previously disrupted global shipping after launching attacks on commercial vessels in late 2023.

The attacks caused shipping traffic through the Red Sea to decline sharply as companies prioritised safety over shorter routes.

The disruption affected global supply chains, with businesses facing:

• Longer delivery times
• Higher shipping costs
• Rising insurance premiums
• Increased fuel expenses

In response, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational effort to protect commercial shipping in the region.

The US and UK also carried out strikes against Houthi positions, while European naval missions supported maritime security operations.

Although attacks later reduced, the latest warnings have raised concerns that the Red Sea could again become a major conflict zone.

Why is Iran threatening the Red Sea route?

Analysts believe Iran’s warning about the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is aimed at increasing pressure on the United States and its allies.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s strongest strategic leverage point, the Red Sea provides another way to affect global trade.

A senior Houthi official, Mohammad al-Farah, warned that the group could close Bab el-Mandeb if tensions escalated.

"If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock," he warned.

Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters that Iran was signalling its ability to threaten both major maritime chokepoints.

"Iran is willing to go all the way," Gerges told Reuters. He added that the message from Tehran was that "not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk."

However, analysts say the Houthis may not immediately move against shipping, as doing so could invite retaliation from the US and Israel and risk their fragile truce with Saudi Arabia.

How Red Sea attacks affect global shipping

A prolonged Red Sea crisis could affect the global economy in several ways.

Higher oil prices

Any disruption to Gulf energy exports could reduce available supplies and push crude prices higher.

Increased shipping costs

Longer routes around Africa increase fuel consumption, insurance costs and freight charges.

Supply chain delays

Industries dependent on Asian-European trade routes could face delays in receiving goods and components.

Inflation risks

Higher energy and transport costs could increase prices for consumers worldwide.

What does the Red Sea crisis mean for India?

The Red Sea is particularly important for India because a significant share of its trade with Europe, North Africa and parts of North America passes through the Suez Canal.

Any disruption could affect India through:

• Higher crude oil import costs
• Increased freight and insurance expenses
• Delays in exports and imports
• Additional inflationary pressure

India has previously deployed naval vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea region to protect merchant ships from piracy and regional security threats.

For India, the Red Sea crisis is not only a geopolitical issue but also a trade and energy security concern.

The Red Sea has become one of the world’s most important and vulnerable shipping routes because it connects major markets, carries critical energy supplies and sits at the intersection of several geopolitical conflicts.

The latest Iran-Houthi warnings have increased fears that the conflict could spread beyond the Gulf and threaten another global trade artery.

Whether the threat remains a warning or turns into actual disruption will determine the next challenge for global shipping, energy markets and economies dependent on stable trade routes.