White Christmas 2026 forecast: Which US states and Canadian regions could see snow on December 25?

Predictions for a White Christmas in the United States and Canada are out. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its 2026 Christmas forecast for both countries. Meanwhile, Weather.com has also analysed the historical chances of snowfall on Christmas Day and identified areas that could experience a White Christmas this year.

A White Christmas is officially defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 am local time on Christmas Day.

According to Weather.com, historically, most areas of the United States have about a 50% chance of experiencing a White Christmas. For instance, New York City's Central Park has recorded only 16 White Christmases since 1912. Washington, D.C., has seen just 13 since 1893, the report added.


Since 2003, an average of about 36% of the Lower 48 states has had snow cover on Christmas morning, Weather.com reported. Seven of those Christmases occurred during El Niño years.

However, it is still too early to make a definitive prediction for Christmas 2026.

"One winter storm with just enough cold air could arrive in time to provide a white Christmas to areas where it's usually less likely. Looking back at the six strongest El Niños since 1950, we expect white Christmas chances to be much lower than usual from the Great Lakes into the Northeast," the report said.

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts a White Christmas for the Northeast, Intermountain region and Alaska. Much of northern Canada is also expected to experience a White Christmas.

The 2026 outlook varies considerably across regions, including neighbouring areas. For example, the Northeast is forecast to have a White Christmas, while the Atlantic Corridor is not.

White Christmas forecast by US region

The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2026–2027 Winter Weather Outlook has predicted a white Christmas in Northeast, Intermountain, and Alaska. It predicted a chance of a white Christmas in Pacific Northwest, Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley, South Appalachians, and High Plains.

Regions where there is no chance of a white Christmas, according to the Almanac include:

• Atlantic Corridor
• North Appalachians
• Southeast
• Florida
• Deep South
• Upper Midwest
• Heartland
• Texas–Oklahoma
• Desert Southwest
• Pacific Southwest
• Hawaii

Will there be a White Christmas in Canada?

Much of Canada is forecast to experience a White Christmas in 2026, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

"Across Atlantic Canada, there is a chance of a white Christmas in the east and a white Christmas in the west. Southern Quebec is forecast to have a white Christmas. In southern Ontario, there is a chance of a white Christmas in the east and a white Christmas in the west," the forecast said.

Moving west, the southern Prairies are expected to have a White Christmas, while southern British Columbia has a chance of experiencing one. However, the outlook does not indicate a White Christmas along the coast of northern British Columbia, extending towards the Alaska border.

Further north, Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut are all forecast to have a White Christmas.

The outlook also predicts a White Christmas across the rest of northern British Columbia, the northern Prairies, northern Ontario, northern Quebec, and northern Newfoundland and Labrador.