What is early voting telling us about the 2026 US midterms and what is it not?

More than 700,000 Americans have already voted in the 2026 US midterm elections across at least 30 states, a month before Election Day on November 3. But early voting figures cannot show which party is winning.

The count is as of October 1, according to early vote data compiled by CNN, the Associated Press and the data firm Catalist. Early voting is also underway in Virginia, where in-person voting began on September 18 and runs until October 31, according to local election offices in the state.

Democrats gain in ballot requests


CNN's analysis of the data shows Democrats make up a larger share of ballot requests than at this point in 2024 in several states with key Senate or governor races. In Iowa, Democrats account for 67% of requests, up from 54%. In Pennsylvania the figure is 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine it is 57%, up from 53%.

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In North Carolina, 42% of requests come from Democrats, up from 36% two years ago, according to data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections cited by CNN.

CNN also noted that in all these states except Iowa, requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are now. It said the rise could also reflect Republicans shifting to other ways of voting.

Virginia gives the clearest picture

Virginia has reported the most votes of any state in CNN's count. It is the only state with substantial numbers of both early in-person and mail ballots. Virginia voters do not register by party, so CNN looked at how areas voted in 2024. Cities and counties that backed Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points are at 78% of their turnout from this time in 2024. Those that backed Donald Trump by 20 points are at 61%.

CNN also measured partisan turnout by the share of voters who have taken part only in one party's primaries since 2022. Statewide, Democratic primary participants outpace Republicans by about 18 points, up from 8 points at the same stage in 2024. In two battleground districts held by Republicans, the 1st (Rob Wittman) and the 2nd (Jen Kiggans), Democratic primary participants lead by 15 and 18 points.

CNN cautioned that Republican voters could close the gap as Election Day nears. Virginians cast over 4.5 million votes in 2024.

Why early numbers can mislead

Ballots are secret, so the data shows who has voted and not how they voted. The University of Florida's Election Lab, which tracks early voting, says on its tracker that party registration figures are not actual votes. Results will be known only after polls close on November 3.

Early voters are also a particular slice of the electorate. CNN exit poll data shows voters aged 65 and above made up 27% of mail voters in 2020, 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024. CNN said that older share appears to be growing again this year. It added that mail voters have been much more Democratic in recent years, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican-leaning. Most of the data so far is from mail ballots.

A small fraction of the total vote

The votes cast so far are a small share of the roughly 57 million pre-election votes in 2022, according to CNN. The US Election Assistance Commission (EAC) counted more than 112 million ballots overall in 2022, or 46.8% of the citizen voting-age population. The EAC found that 49% of voters cast ballots in person on Election Day that year, and nearly one-third voted by mail.

How Americans vote early

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), citing the National Conference of State Legislatures, 47 states and Washington DC offered early voting to all eligible voters as of April 2026. Early voting periods ranged from 3 to 46 days. As of June 2026, 37 states and DC offered some form of no-excuse mail voting.

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California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and DC hold all-mail elections, and Vermont does so for general elections, the CRS said.

Legal changes on mail ballots

On June 29, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled in Watson v. Republican National Committee that federal Election Day statutes do not require ballots to be received by Election Day, the CRS said. It added that President Donald Trump's executive orders of March 25, 2025 and March 31, 2026 touch on mail voting. One covers deadlines for returning mail ballots and the other covers the design and transmission of mail balloting materials. Litigation over both was pending as of the CRS's July 10 update.

The CNN-compiled count is expected to grow substantially in the coming weeks as more states open in-person early voting.