US probes suspicious oil trades made before Trump's Iran pivots, source says

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy, a person familiar with the matter said on ‌Wednesday.

CFTC Chairman Michael ⁠Selig said ⁠in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress on Thursday that the agency will go after wrongdoers, but nothing in the testimony addressed ​any specific investigation and an agency spokesperson declined to comment.

"I want to be crystal clear: to anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets: we will find you, and you will face the full force of the law," Selig said in the remarks seen by Reuters.


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The CFTC probe is focused on trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging ⁠to CME ‌Group and Intercontinental Exchange, with investigators examining at least two instances of oil trades made on March 23 and April 7, the source said.

Well-timed trades may have generated millions of ⁠dollars in profits, drawing concern from lawmakers and legal experts that decisions around ​war and diplomacy can create opportunities for abuse in volatile and opaque derivatives ​markets.

Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire last week. There was similarly well-timed trading in the oil market on March 23.

The data requested from the exchanges include the so-called Tag 50 identifications of the entities behind the trades.

"At CME Group, we vigorously surveil our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity," a ‌CME spokesperson said in a statement, adding that any review of market behavior must include all venues, including prediction markets that list related products with little to no visibility.

ICE declined to ​comment on ​the matter.

The White House has ⁠warned staff against improperly leveraging their positions to place bets in futures markets amid the ongoing war in Iran.

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The CFTC's enforcement director said last month the agency was aware of speculation regarding insider trading in CFTC-regulated ​markets and was "watching".

In a statement, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a prominent overseer and critic of the CFTC, said the agency's probe is a start and that regulators should do more to investigate any insider trading by administration officials.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Warren's statement.