Who is leading North Carolina Senate race polls? Can Democrat Roy Cooper defeat Michael Whatley amid Trump’s $5,000 dividend pushback

North Carolina Senate Race polls: Roy Cooper (D), Michael Whatley (R), and three other candidates are running in North Carolina's US Senate election on November 3, 2026. With 15 days to go before the November 3 election, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has a 13% lead over Republican Michael Whatley among likely voters in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to Elon University poll. Cooper has maintained strong leads in this race throughout this year’s surveys, the poll shows. This final poll before election day was conducted Sept. 29 – Oct. 8 and gathered input from 800 North Carolina adults, with an overall margin of error of 4.03%.

Cooper was favored by 52% of likely voters, compared with 39% who favored Whatley, 6% who were undecided and 3% of likely voters said they favored Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray, Green Party candidate Michael Dublin, or “someone else.”

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Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley race in North Carolina

The latest available polling average, dated October 21, puts Democrat Roy Cooper at 52.7% and Republican Michael Whatley at 40.6%. An October 20 Elon University poll separately found Cooper leading 52% to 39%. Among likely voters, Cooper was supported by 93% of Democrats and 50% of Independents, while Whatley was supported by 85% of Republicans and 24% of Independents. Seventeen percent of Independents said they were undecided.

Whatley led among White voters with 46%, compared with 40% for Cooper. However, Cooper held wide advantages in other demographics, including a 70%-14% margin among Black voters and a 59%-22% lead among Hispanic voters. Cooper and Whatley were tied at 42% each among male likely voters, but females favored Cooper by a 51%-34% margin, the poll shows.

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“Roy Cooper’s sustained lead over Michael Whatley in North Carolina is being driven in large part by strong support among moderates, true independents and women,” said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and professor of political science and public policy. “We also are seeing signs of a potential turnout gap, with Cooper voters expressing higher levels of excitement about voting in the election and placing more importance on the election for real-world outcomes in their lives.”

“Three findings in our data stand out to me highlighting potential for Cooper’s lead to contract somewhat between now and Election Day,” Husser said. “First, Michael Whatley has a slight advantage among undecided voters when we pressed them to make a choice, attributable to more undecided voters being 2024 Trump voters than 2024 Harris voters. Second, Whatley voters continue to predict he will ultimately win, suggesting his supporters are still motivated to cast their votes. Third, Cooper’s lead among registered voters overall is smaller than his lead among the subset of registered voters who say they are likely to vote, implying opportunity for Republicans if they can motivate more of their base to turn out.”

Cooper continued to hold an advantage in voter familiarity, with 67% of likely voters saying they had heard a “great deal” about Cooper, compared with 38% who said they had heard a “great deal” about Whatley. Still, Whatley has closed the gap on familiarity, with a total of 80% saying they had heard at least something about him.

A large majority of registered voters said they intend to cast a ballot, with 63% saying it is absolutely certain they will vote and another 17% saying it is very likely they will vote.

Related to the campaign, 27% of registered voters said they had seen more negative ads about Cooper, with 18% saying they had seen more negative ads about Whatley, and the largest percentage (41%) saying they had seen about the same amount of negative ads for each candidate.

Impact of President Trump on this year’s election

At campaign rallies, President Trump has urged his supporters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. However, the survey found that 43% of registered voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, while 25% said his endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. Around 26% said a Trump endorsement would make little difference to their voting decision.

Trump’s promise to give every adult U.S. citizen a $5,000 “dividend” if Republicans win control of both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate also appears to have limited appeal. About 30% of respondents said the promise made them less likely to vote for Republicans, while 16% said it made them more likely to support the party. Half of those surveyed, or 50%, said the proposed dividend would not affect their voting decision.

“President Trump’s $5,000 dividend idea does not appear to be swaying a net positive amount of North Carolina voters towards Republicans,” Husser said. “Even among those who approve of the President’s job performance, most said the dividend makes no difference to their voting decision. However, the President’s endorsement still resonates with his base. Among Republicans, almost none indicate that a Trump endorsement makes them less likely to support an endorsed candidate, and slightly more than half said it makes them more likely to support that candidate. This gives credence that visits by President Trump and Vice President Vance to the state have potential to motivate Republicans to turn out, even if those visits do not do much to persuade voters outside the GOP.”

In this survey, Trump’s disapproval rating was at 57%, the highest in his second term in office, compared with a 34% approval rating, which is slightly higher than the August Elon University Poll.