US midterms Senate battle: 12 states that could decide whether Democrats wrest control from Trump’s Republicans, or things stay the same

The fight for the US Senate is no longer confined to traditional political battlegrounds. From Alaska and Kansas to Texas and South Carolina, voter anger over inflation, tariffs and the Iran war has put Republican strongholds under unexpected pressure, giving Democrats a chance to reshape the balance of power in Washington, Reuters reported ahead of the voting.

The US midterm elections could produce a shift in the country's political landscape, with Democrats needing a net gain of at least four seats to take control of the Senate from Republicans. The party's prospects have improved considerably as dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, the economic impact of tariffs and the war with Iran reshape electoral contests across the country.

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Republicans currently command a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and a Democratic takeover appeared improbable at the beginning of the year. However, Democrats have become competitive in several states that Trump won comfortably in 2024. Republicans, meanwhile, are attempting to defend vulnerable seats while looking to make gains in traditionally Democratic territory.

Here are the key contests that could determine which party controls the Senate.

WhereDemocrats are taking aim at Republican strongholds

Alaska: Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces a serious challenge from former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola, who has narrowly led in recent opinion polls despite Trump's 13-percentage-point victory in the state in 2024. Peltola has raised $37 million against Sullivan's nearly $14 million, while spending by political groups from both parties has approached $90 million.

The contest has also been overshadowed by allegations that Peltola's campaign associates helped recruit candidates sharing Sullivan's name to confuse voters. Trump has called the alleged strategy voter fraud, prompting Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy to order an investigation. The Justice Department has separately approached a federal court seeking to prevent certification of the results if Sullivan narrowly loses. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system allows voters to select multiple preferences.

Iowa: Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state legislator Josh Turek are competing for the seat being vacated by Senator Joni Ernst, who is not seeking reelection. Trump's declining popularity, tariffs and the Iran conflict have made the contest unexpectedly competitive despite his 13-point victory in Iowa in 2024.

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Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist, has raised $24 million against Hinson's $14 million. Democratic groups have spent $96 million, compared with $85 million by Republicans. Both candidates have made the rising cost of living central to their campaigns.

Kansas: Another traditionally Republican state has entered the Democratic calculations. Senator Roger Marshall, who faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, has seen Republican leaders divert resources from North Carolina to protect his seat. Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch founding pastor, has raised $19 million against Marshall's $7.5 million. Democratic groups have spent $51 million, while Republicans have invested $29 million. A recent poll showed Hamilton narrowly ahead. Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger and former state Senate president. Jackson entered the contest in July after the original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew amid sexual assault allegations that he denied.

Despite his late entry, Jackson has raised approximately $1.5 million more than Collins. However, Republican groups have spent $82 million compared with Democrats' $49 million. Recent surveys have placed Jackson ahead in a state Trump lost in 2024.

North Carolina: Democrats appear well positioned to capture this seat following Republican Senator Thom Tillis' retirement. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has raised $50 million, substantially exceeding the $14 million collected by Republican candidate Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman. Polls show Cooper leading by 9-14 percentage points. Trump has himself acknowledged the difficulty Republicans face in retaining the seat.

Ohio: Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting to return to Washington after losing in 2024. He faces Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance when Vance left the Senate for the White House. Brown has raised $68 million against Husted's $20 million. Outside spending has approached $400 million, including $237 million from Republicans and $150 million from Democrats. Recent polls show Brown leading by as much as five percentage points or running neck and neck.

South Carolina: Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging Republican Darline Graham in a state Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024. Graham received Trump's backing after the death of his ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, and subsequently won a special runoff for the Republican nomination. Andrews, a paediatrician, has raised $22 million more than Graham. Republican groups have spent $22 million defending the seat, while Democrats have committed $18 million. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.

Texas: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is under pressure from Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff with Trump's endorsement, but the bitter contest has left divisions within the party. Talarico has raised $124 million more than Paxton, while Democrats have committed $100 million in outside spending. Republicans have spent approximately $300 million trying to retain the seat. Recent polls show Talarico leading by 2-8 percentage points, an extraordinary development in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

Where Republicans are seeking breakthroughs in Democratic territory

Georgia: Republican Representative Mike Collins is struggling to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who has emerged as a potential 2028 presidential contender. Ossoff has raised $126 million more than Collins, and recent polls consistently show him ahead. Former President Barack Obama recently campaigned alongside Ossoff and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms in Atlanta.

Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers is challenging Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated moderate Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary. Rogers has attempted to exploit divisions among Black and Jewish voters, while portraying El-Sayed as excessively focused on Gaza. El-Sayed has raised $54 million against Rogers' $23 million, although Republican groups have spent $157 million compared with Democrats' $89 million. Recent surveys show El-Sayed leading by 6-9 percentage points.

Minnesota: Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan faces former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya in a contest shaped partly by a childcare fraud scandal involving the state. Flanagan has consistently led in polling despite trailing Tafoya in fundraising, $11.6 million to $12.5 million. Outside groups from both parties have spent $1.8 million each. The seat became vacant following Democratic Senator Tina Smith's retirement.

New Hampshire: Democrat Chris Pappas is defending an open seat against former Republican Senator John Sununu following Jeanne Shaheen's retirement. Pappas has raised $24 million against Sununu's $6 million, although Republican groups have spent $37 million compared with Democrats' $24 million. Recent polls give Pappas a 5-7 percentage-point advantage.

For Trump, a defining test

The outcome will determine more than the composition of the Senate. A Democratic takeover would give the opposition greater influence over congressional investigations, legislation and oversight of Trump's administration. For Republicans, retaining their majority would provide the president with greater political room to pursue his economic and foreign policy agenda.

With inflation, tariffs and the Iran war emerging as significant campaign issues, the Senate contest has become an important referendum on Trump's second-term presidency. The results on November 3 will reveal whether Republican electoral strength can withstand mounting voter dissatisfaction or whether Democrats are poised to regain control of one of Washington's most powerful institutions.


Article based on Reuters reporting