US midterm elections: What to watch as midterms become a referendum on Trump

US President Donald Trump faces a crucial political test on Tuesday as millions of Americans vote in midterm elections that could determine whether his Republican Party retains control of Congress, with voter dissatisfaction over the economy, the war with Iran and his presidency giving Democrats an opportunity to regain power.

The elections, held halfway through Trump's four-year term, are widely seen as a referendum on his performance over the past two years.

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A Democratic victory in either or both chambers of Congress would constrain the president's legislative agenda and increase scrutiny of his administration, which has so far faced few checks from a Republican-controlled Congress.

The outcome matters beyond US politics, where if Democrats win control of Congress, they could put greater checks on Trump's agenda, including his decisions on foreign policy, while the Iran war and rising fuel prices have also become key issues for voters heading into the polls.

More than 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots before Election Day, according to the Associated Press (AP).

Democrats are seeking majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while several key gubernatorial races are also being closely watched.

Trump faces voter backlash as Democrats target Congress

Trump has repeatedly urged voters to treat the midterms as though he himself were on the ballot. However, the appeal comes as his approval ratings remain weak and Democrats appear more energised to vote against his party.

The AP reported that concerns over the war with Iran and the rising cost of petrol and other everyday necessities have helped Democrats build momentum.

Trump, meanwhile, is counting on the white working-class voters who helped secure his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024 to turn out in large numbers.

The outcome could also reveal whether Hispanic and Black voters, as well as younger Americans who shifted towards Trump in the 2024 presidential election, have begun moving away from the Republican Party.

Democrats are considered well positioned to win the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a narrow 220-215 advantage.

However, the scale of any Democratic gains remains uncertain because of redrawn electoral boundaries and the deep political divide between urban and rural areas.

The Senate contest is tighter, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need to gain four seats to take control. Their targets include Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska, which are key states that Trump won in the presidential election.

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Iran war, election security and key governor races in focus

Meanwhile, concerns about possible interference in the voting process are also looming, with the Trump administration facing scrutiny over its legal efforts relating to ballot counting and election certification in Alaska and California.

The Justice Department is deploying around 1,000 staff members to observe voting and ensure federal laws are followed, AP reported.

Democrats and nonpartisan watchdog groups have trained tens of thousands of volunteers to monitor polling stations amid fears that federal immigration agents or the National Guard could be deployed to intimidate voters in Democratic strongholds.

The administration said it had no current plans for such deployments, as per the report.

Several gubernatorial contests could also make history. Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa is seeking to become the state's first Latina governor, while New Mexico's Deb Haaland could become the first Native American woman to lead a US state. Georgia's Keisha Lance Bottoms and Minnesota's Lisa Demuth are among the Black women seeking governorships.

The results could also shape the Democratic Party's direction ahead of the next presidential election, with progressive and moderate factions looking to establish their influence. Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is among the prominent progressive candidates whose performance will be closely watched.

The midterms will offer an early indication of whether Trump's political coalition remains strong enough to protect Republican control of Congress, or whether voters are preparing to put limits on his presidency.

(With inputs from AP)