Pennsylvania 10: Trump ally Scott Perry faces fresh challenge from Janelle Stelson

Republican Representative Scott Perry andDemocrat Janelle Stelson are locked in a close rematch in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, a race that could help determine control of the US House. Perry narrowly defeated Stelson in 2024, winning 50.5% of the vote to 29.3%. Donald Trump carried the district by about 5 points in the same election.

The district covers Harrisburg and parts of Dauphin, Cumberland and York counties. It has a Republican lean, but Stelson's strong performance in 2024 showed that Perry can be challenged, particularly in the suburbs around Harrisburg.

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Cook Political Report has rated the contest a Toss Up ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. A recent polls conducted by The Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Times and Siena University found Perry and Stelson tied at 48% among likely voters. The poll also found that President Trump had a 55% disapproval rating in the district, compared with 43% approval.

Perry seeks another term

Perry, a former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has represented the district since 2013. He remains popular with conservative Republicans and has a national fundraising network.

His campaign is focusing on lower taxes, border security, healthcare reform and skilled manufacturing jobs. Perry has also highlighted his military service and experience in Congress. However, his close association with Trum and his role in efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election have given Democrats a central line of attack. Perry has defeated his record while presenting himself as an independent lawmaker who has disagreed wiht Trump on some issues, including government spendig and Chinese student visas.

Stelson makes a second attempt

Stelson, a former TV news anchor, is using her local profile to mount a second challenge, Her campaign has focused on healthcare costs, housing, inflation, jobs and government accountability. Healthcare is one of the main points of difference between the candidates. According to reports, Perry opposed extending Affordable Care Act tax credits, while Stelson supports making the credits payment. Stelson has also proposed allowing Medicare to negotiate more prescription-drug prices and strengthening protections against surprise medical bills.

Perry has argued that the Affordable Care Act failed to cut costs. His campaign supports expanding health savings accounts, increasing price transparency and allowing people to purchase insurance across state lines.

The candidates also differ on housing and tariffs. Stelson has criticised Perry's vote against a federal housing bill and says tariffs increase the cost of construction materials. She has proposed measures aimed at reducing housing costs and widening access to home loans. Perry has argued that federal intervention has contributed to housing unaffordability.

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Surburban voters could decide the race

Stelson needs to improve on her 2024 performance in the Harrisburg surburbs and win support from moderate Republicans and voters who backed Trump but may not support Perry.

Perry’s path to victory depends on strong turnout among conservative voters and holding his support in the district’s smaller towns and rural areas. He must also keep the election focused on his experience and conservative agenda rather than on his role in the 2020 election dispute.

The latest polling suggests that neither candidate has created a decisive lead. The Inquirer–New York Times–Siena poll gave Perry an advantage among voters on immigration and foreign policy, while Stelson performed better on the cost of living, character and corruption.

Why the race matters

Pennsylvania’s 10th District is one of several competitive Republican-held seats that Democrats are targeting as they seek to win the House. Stelson’s 2024 campaign came within about 5,100 votes of defeating Perry, making the rematch more competitive than the district’s Republican voting history might suggest.

The result will show whether Democrats can convert dissatisfaction with Trump and concerns about affordability into support for a congressional challenger. It will also test whether Perry’s conservative base remains strong enough to protect him in a district where the presidential margin was considerably larger than his own victory margin in 2024.

If Stelson wins, Democrats would gain a seat in a district that still leans Republican. If Perry retains the seat, the margin will indicate whether his incumbency and conservative support remain enough to withstand a difficult national environment.