US midterm elections 2026: Democrats or Republicans, who will win? Here’s what the projections show

Democrats are projected to win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, according to Decision Desk HQ, CNN and NBC News. CBS News has also projected Democratic leads in key races in Texas, including the Senate and gubernatorial contests.

The projections suggest a possible shift in Washington, with Democrats gaining control of the House and Republicans facing voter dissatisfaction over the cost of living and opposition to the war in Iran.

Republicans have struggled to distance themselves from US President Donald Trump as his approval ratings fell to record lows in the weeks before the election. Trump repeatedly urged his supporters to turn out, framing the midterms as a test of his political standing, with counting still under way in several races.

Democrats projected to take control of the House

Decision Desk HQ projected that Democrats would wrest control of the House from Republicans. CNN and NBC News also projected that Democrats would win control of the chamber.

A Democratic victory would end the Republican Party’s ability to pass legislation in the House solely with its own votes. Democrats would gain greater influence over the legislative agenda and congressional oversight of the Trump administration.

The new balance of power would take effect on January 3, when the next Congress convenes.

However, a Democratic House majority would not automatically translate into major legislative gains. Republicans would retain control of the White House, while Trump would continue to have the power to veto legislation passed by Congress.

A Democratic-controlled House would nevertheless constrain Trump’s ability to advance his domestic agenda.

CBS projects Democratic leads in Texas

Democrats made early gains in traditionally Republican Texas, with candidates leading in the Senate and gubernatorial races, according to CBS News projections.

Democratic candidates James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa were ahead of their Republican rivals, with more than half the ballots counted.

In the gubernatorial race, Hinojosa had secured 57.2% of the vote against Republican incumbent Greg Abbott’s 41.6%, with 54% of ballots counted.

In the Senate contest, Talarico was leading Republican Ken Paxton with 59.4% of the vote against 39.1%, with 53% of ballots counted, according to CBS News.

Neither race had been called, and counting was still under way.

A Democratic victory in either contest would be significant. The party has not won a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades, while the state has remained a Republican stronghold.

Democrats show gains in Kansas

Democrats were also showing signs of gains in Kansas, another traditionally Republican state.

The Senate contest was leaning towards Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, with NBC News assigning at least 75% confidence to the projected outcome.

The emerging results in Texas and Kansas could have implications for the broader battle over control of Congress, as voters decide whether Trump’s Republican Party retains control of the legislature for the remainder of his second term.

Annie Andrews projected to flip South Carolina Senate seat

Democrat Annie Andrews was projected to defeat Republican Darlene Graham in the South Carolina Senate race.

The projected result would give Democrats a gain in a state that has traditionally remained firmly Republican.

Democrats projected to win two Pennsylvania House races

Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson was projected by NBC News to defeat Republican incumbent Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.

In Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Bob Brooks was projected by CNN to defeat Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie.

The projected defeats of Republican incumbents could help Democrats secure the majority required to take control of the House.

What a Democratic House would mean

A Democratic takeover would significantly alter the balance of power in Washington.

Democrats would gain control over the House legislative agenda and have greater authority to oversee the Trump administration. They would also be able to use congressional committees to investigate the administration and challenge its policies.

However, Republicans would continue to control the White House, and Trump would retain his presidential veto. Democrats would therefore need Republican support to pass major legislation or a two-thirds majority to override a veto.

When would the new balance take effect?

The new congressional balance would take effect on January 3, when the next Congress convenes.

Until then, Republicans would continue to hold their current position in the House. The final outcome will depend on the remaining uncalled races and the completion of the vote count.

The projections so far indicate that Democrats are moving towards House control, while Republicans would retain control of the White House.