Trump's MAGA base shows cracks ahead of US midterm elections 2026? New poll finds Republican voters unhappy with living costs

US midterm polls 2026: US President Donald Trump is steadily losing trust among American voters, with a strong majority believing Trump is falling short on major domestic and foreign policy issues and want significant change in the upcoming midterm elections. The findings of a new AP-NORC poll point to a difficult political environment for Republicans less than four weeks before Election Day, with Democrats holding an advantage in voter enthusiasm and preferences for control of Congress.

The survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about casting their ballots than Republicans. More registered voters also want Democrats to control Congress, while Republicans face higher negative ratings.

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The Democratic advantage is narrow on some measures. But taken together, the findings show Republicans heading into the election under pressure from voter concerns over the economy, rising living costs and the war in Iran.

About eight in 10 registered voters say the economy or cost of living is among their most important issues in the election. Around two-thirds say the same about healthcare and the war in Iran.

Issues where Trump has traditionally performed better, including immigration and crime, rank lower among voters' priorities.

Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage in midterm elections

About two-thirds of registered voters say voting in the midterm elections is "extremely" important, while around two in 10 describe it as "very" important.

The partisan divide is wider. About three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting in November is "extremely" important, compared with roughly six in 10 Republican voters.

Democrats are also trying to capitalise on the political environment by putting resources into traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Iowa and Kansas, while building on momentum in races in states including Ohio.

Republicans have controlled Congress for the past two years, but about half of registered voters now say they would prefer Democrats to control the House or Senate.

Roughly four in 10 want Republicans to control each chamber, while 15% remain undecided.

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US midterms 2026: Most voters want major change

The poll also shows widespread demand for a change in the direction of the country.

About half of voters say they want "substantial change" in how the US is run, while roughly three in 10 want "complete and total upheaval."

Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republicans to support a complete overhaul. However, dissatisfaction extends into the Republican electorate as well.

Among Republican voters, 45% say they want substantial change, while 13% want complete upheaval.

Trump's ratings ahead of US polls remain weak on the economy

Trump's approval numbers are particularly weak on the issues voters rank among their biggest concerns.

Only about one-third of registered voters have a "very" or "somewhat" favourable view of Trump. A similar share approve of his overall performance as president.

The cost of living remains one of his weakest areas. Nearly eight in 10 registered voters disapprove of Trump's handling of living costs, broadly in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in September.

About three-quarters disapprove of his handling of the economy.

There are also signs of dissatisfaction among Republican voters. Only 44% approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, while 54% approve of his performance on the economy.

The numbers are considerably stronger for Trump on issues such as crime.

Foreign policy has also emerged as a source of pressure. About 69% of Republican voters approve of Trump's handling of foreign policy as the war in Iran enters its eighth month, despite his earlier promises that the conflict would last only four or five weeks.

The economy and cost of living cut across party lines, with large majorities of both Democratic and Republican voters identifying them as among the most important issues in the midterms.

JD Vance also struggles with voters

Vice President JD Vance, viewed as a potential Republican contender for the next presidential election, also has weak ratings among the wider electorate.

About half of registered voters have a "somewhat" or "very" negative view of Vance, compared with roughly one-third who view him positively.

Democrats have an edge, but voters remain sceptical

Republican difficulties have not translated into broad enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.

About four in 10 registered voters have a "very" or "somewhat" favourable view of Democrats, while around half view the party unfavourably.

Republicans fare worse, with about six in 10 voters holding an unfavourable view of the GOP.

Both parties retain strong support among their own voters. About eight in 10 Democratic and Republican voters have a favourable opinion of their respective parties.

The bigger difference emerges among independents, a potentially important group in competitive congressional races.

About two-thirds of independent voters have a negative view of the Republican Party, compared with roughly four in 10 who view Democrats negatively.

The findings suggest Democrats enter the final weeks of the 2026 midterm campaign with advantages in voter enthusiasm and congressional preference. But widespread dissatisfaction with both parties means the election is being shaped as much by frustration with the country's direction as by enthusiasm for either political party.