Did Iran just make Trump cry? How Republicans may have taken a direct war hit

The US midterm election, the results of which were out on November 4, delivered a big jolt to Donald Trump and his Republican party. As the news of the stunning Democrat comeback sinks in, analysts are increasingly of the view that the war in Iran may have played a key role in influencing the poll outcome.

The war fought thousands of miles away from the US ended up hitting Americans where it mattered most -- their wallets. As rising fuel prices, sticky inflation and mounting govt expenditure added to household worries, Trump's war likely emerged as a major liability for the Republicans at these elections.

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To be sure, the Iran war was not the only reason voters turned against the ruling Republicans. However, the war's economic fallout appears to have added to a growing backlash against Trump's reign, helping Democrats win control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

A loss months in the making

Voter anger, especially over cost of living, may have played a substantial role in the poll backlash against Trump & Co.

According to Reuters' exit-poll findings, nearly nine in 10 voters considered living costs a major or crucial factor in deciding their vote. Two-thirds held Trump responsible for high prices, while 62% disapproved of his track record as President.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey done just ahead of the vote found that 55% of voters believed Trump's war did not justify its costs. Only 25% thought the the war was worthwhile.

These findings showed that a large number of Americans -- forming a big section of the electorate -- were not convinced that Trump needed to get the country into the war.

The conflict most didn't want

The Iran war was steadily eating into Trump's approval ratings even before Americans cast their votes.

The Reuters/Ipsos survey (conducted in August) found that Trump's rating had fallen to 33%, the lowest level in its surveys done across both his terms. The country's backing for military action against Iran had also declined to 31% by August, compared with 37% in March.

An AP-NORC survey (done in July) found that approximately two-thirds of Americans considered the war not worth fighting. Only 28% approved of Trump's handling of the war, down from 34% in June.

By that point, Democrats were not the only opposers of Iran war; the backing for the war was showing signs of weakening even among Republicans.

The July-August surveys (Reuters – August 24 poll; AP – July 30 poll) also marked the beginning of a broader problem for Trump: more and more Americans were not just questioning the war, but also its consequences for their homes and hearths and finances.

Also read | Vivek Ramaswamy: Decoding a Republican firebrand's high-decibel fall

Faraway war hits near home

The war's costs became another cause of worry for Americans. Recent Pentagon info given to Congress showed Iran war had cost American taxpayers approximately $47.1 billion (October 16 estimate).

This is an increase of $3.5 billion from early September. Team Trump was also seeking congressional approval for a $95 billion package to help finance the war and other related matters.

For Americans already struggling with household bills, the prospect of billions more being spent on a war that most of them didn't want was probably a cause for serious vexation.

Price pain squeezes Aam-erican aadmi...

The most immediate economic consequence of the war was its impact on energy prices.

Disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supplies, pushed up fuel costs in the US. By late October, average gasoline prices reached $4.33 per gallon, approximately 45% more than pre-war prices. Diesel prices rose even more sharply, adding to inflation that was already on the up.

The pressure was clearly visible in the numbers. US consumer prices increased 0.6% in September, taking annual inflation to 3.7%, compared with 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices alone rose 7.1% during the month.

While tariffs and other factors also contributed to inflation, higher energy costs linked to the Iran was likely the most visible nudge for voters.

The Reuters/Ipsos survey mentioned above found that 48% of registered voters identified the cost of living as the biggest poll issue for them. Nearly half also said their household financial situation had deteriorated since Trump returned for his second term.

...and they send Trump a stern midterm message

Significantly, Trump himself acknowledged that the Iran war had contributed to Republican loss at the midterms. Speaking to Fox News after the election, he conceded that the war had weighed on Republican candidates, although he maintained that voters understood the importance of his actions against Tehran.

Trump's acknowledgement is significant because his administration had faced growing pressure over the economic and political costs of the war in the months preceding the elections.

In September, Reuters had reported that senior Trump functionaries wanted to prevent an escalation of the war ahead of the vote, fearing electoral damage.

The midterm message to Trump from voters appeared to be clear-cut -- that his war not just roiled the Gulf and unsettled much of the world, but also reached America's fuel pumps and kitchen tables.