US elections 2024: How Kamala Harris secured unexpected lead over Trump in Iowa polls

In a major drawback for former US President, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has surpassed Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, with likely women voters responsible for the turnaround in a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020, according to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released on Saturday.

The poll of 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, has Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years. It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but it marked a turnaround from a September Iowa Poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead, the newspaper reported.

Why Kamala Harris is taking a lead?

"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris," the Register said.


Trump won Iowa in his past two presidential campaigns, by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.

An Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of a similar number of likely voters Nov. 1-2 had a starkly different result, with Trump leading Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

Expressing shock, Election pundit Nate Silver said it means somebody is going to be wrong. Anne Selzer of Selzer & Co has a long history of 'bucking the conventional wisdom and being right," Silver wrote.

"Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 per cent to 17 per cent tonight, which isn’t nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, moving from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey. But that still places Harris’s odds at around 5:1 against," Silver wrote.

The Emerson College survey had Trump with strong leads over Harris among men and independents, while Harris was performing well with those under the age of 30.

Nationally, Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House, with early voting well underway. Election Day is on Tuesday.

Why is Iowa important?

Whoever wins Iowa will collect six Electoral College votes. A total of 270 are needed to capture the White House. Both parties have been concentrating their efforts during the closing days of their campaigns on "battleground" states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

(with agency inputs)