US Election 2024: Donald Trump holds a 52% chance to win, can Kamala Harris catch up?

Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time in this election cycle. According to the latest forecast, Trump now has a 52% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Harris's 42%.

For several months, the forecast had favored Harris, with her chances ranging between 54-56%, while Trump held a steady 44-46%. However, since early October, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed considerably.

Trump's rise in the forecast aligns with his improved polling in key battleground states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which previously leaned toward Harris. Trump also maintains a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris leads only in Pennsylvania among the critical swing states.


The US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Early voting is already underway in several states, including Georgia, California, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama. The winning candidate will start their four-year term on January 20, 2025.