Trump's new 12.5% China tariffs unlikely to trigger retaliation, say analysts

Donald Trump's new tariffs of 12.5% on China might irk Beijing without provoking a retaliation, even as the US president rebuilds a protectionist wall after the Supreme Court struck down his initial levies.

The duties, announced by the Trump administration on Thursday, are in line with tariff levels it had proposed last month on 60 trading partners, citing what it said were inadequate efforts to address forced labour.

The latest shift means China will face an effective US levy of 22.2%, 1.4 percentage points higher than under the previous framework, according to Bloomberg Economics. It estimates China's burden relative to other trading partners will climb slightly to 11.5 percentage points above the global average.


Also read: China says it opposes new US tariffs, warns against trade wars

The new rates replace global duties of 10% that expired on July 24. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian reiterated that China opposes all forms of unilateral tariffs. Speaking during a regular press briefing on Friday in Beijing, Lin didn't directly respond when asked whether China would take countermeasures against the tariffs. "Beijing will surely express its opposition to tariffs," said Tianchen Xu, a senior China analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit. "But don't expect meaningful retaliation this time."

Clarity on AI Summit

Chinese officials are seeking clarity from Washington on what the US expects from upcoming artificial intelligence talks, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration escalates pressure on China's fast-rising AI sector.

As part of that effort, Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu visited Washington this week with a remit that includes sounding out US agencies on the scope and likely outcomes of the dialogue, according to sources.