Trump's midterm alarm bells are ringing: Five new polls hold clues

With the US midterm elections approaching on November 3, Democrats are leading Republicans in five recent national congressional polls, while President Donald Trump is struggling with low approval ratings. Surveys by The New York Times/Siena, CNN/SSRS, Reuters/Ipsos, Echelon Insights and Morning Consult show a Democratic advantage ranging from five to 12 percentage points.

The findings suggest that dissatisfaction with Trump is coinciding with weaker support for his party.

Democrats lead in all five congressional polls


The latest figures show Democrats ahead in every one of the five surveys conducted between October 12 and 19.

The New York Times/Siena poll, based on interviews with 3,494 likely voters, put Democrats at 52% against 41% for Republicans, an 11-point lead. CNN/SSRS recorded a 49%-39% split among registered voters, giving Democrats a 10-point advantage.

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Reuters/Ipsos found Democrats leading 47%-35% among registered voters, the widest gap in this group at 12 points. Echelon Insights reported a narrower 50%-45% margin among likely voters, while Morning Consult put Democrats ahead 50%-43%, a seven-point lead.

The figures are not perfectly interchangeable because the surveys use different samples and methodologies. But the direction is consistent which shows Democrats hold an advantage in all five.

The Reuters/Ipsos findings are particularly notable because the 12-point gap was the largest Democratic advantage recorded in that poll's current election cycle. Reuters reported that concern about rising petrol prices was weighing on voters as the election approached.

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Trump's approval rating is under pressure

The same polling period shows a difficult picture for Trump, although approval figures vary by pollster and respondent group.

The New York Times/Siena survey found that 36% of likely voters approved of Trump's performance, while 59% disapproved. This was the lowest approval rating recorded in the partnership's polling, with disapproval particularly pronounced on economic issues.

CNN/SSRS recorded 32% approval and 67% disapproval among US adults. CNN's analysis said nearly six in 10 voters viewed Trump as a factor in their midterm vote, with more than twice as many describing that influence as opposition rather than support.

Reuters/Ipsos found Trump's approval at 31% among all US adults, a record low in either of his presidential terms. The survey also found that 68% disapproved of his handling of the economy. The 31% figure covers all adults, whereas the congressional ballot results were reported among registered voters.

Echelon Insights recorded 39% approval and 60% disapproval among likely voters. Morning Consult's latest figures were less negative, at 42% approval and 56% disapproval. The two surveys show that Trump's approval varies by pollster, but neither found a majority approving of his performance.

The economy is a central problem

Economic dissatisfaction helps explain why the congressional ballot and presidential approval figures are moving in the same direction.

In the New York Times/Siena survey, 69% disapproved of Trump's handling of the cost of living and 73% disapproved of his handling of gas prices. The poll also found that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle several major issues, including the economy and healthcare, according to the Siena Research Institute's release.

Reuters reported that rising gasoline prices and the economic consequences of Trump's military actions in Iran were contributing to dissatisfaction. Its poll found that only about a third of Americans approved of his handling of the economy.

These results suggest that the Republican Party is facing more than a routine contest over congressional representation. Voters unhappy with the administration's economic record may also be less inclined to support Republican candidates. However, the polls do not establish that every voter who disapproves of Trump intends to vote Democratic.

What the polls say about control of Congress

The national congressional ballot measures party preference, not the number of seats each party will win. House races are decided in individual districts, while Senate contests are decided state by state.

A sustained Democratic lead in the national vote could translate into House gains, but the scale would depend on where those votes are cast and how competitive districts perform. Senate control is harder to infer from a national ballot because only a portion of the states hold Senate elections in any given cycle.

The New York Times/Siena survey offered an additional indication of that as it reported a five-point Democratic advantage across states holding Senate races, smaller than the party's national congressional lead.

Can Trump win the midterms?

Trump is not on the ballot in the midterms. The election will determine control of Congress, and its result will shape how much room his administration has to advance its legislative agenda.

The five polls show a consistent Democratic lead on the congressional ballot alongside majority disapproval of Trump's job performance. Economic concerns feature prominently in the accompanying reporting. Still, national polling cannot settle the outcome. District boundaries, individual Senate races, turnout and late shifts in voter preferences will all matter.

The clearest takeaway is that Republicans are entering the final stretch facing a measurable national polling deficit and an unpopular president. Whether those conditions translate into a change in congressional control will depend on how the national mood plays out in the specific races that decide the House and Senate.