Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ confronts economic angst that threatens GOP

The Republican faithful, gathered in arena hallways and hotel ballrooms during this week’s midterm convention, projected confidence they had a good story to tell on the economy.

Some pointed to the steady unemployment rate and stock market growth as evidence of a new “Golden Age” driven by a resilient economy and American consumer, while others argued immigration and manufacturing policies were yielding a better life for US citizens.

Still, a latent anxiety hung over Dallas. The reality — that polls suggest voters are in fact quite anxious about the state of the economy, and preparing to punish Republicans in November’s midterm elections — has become hard for even President Donald Trump to ignore.


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Ultimately, the way voters feel about an economy that is a mess of contradictions - growing and stable but expensive and inequitable — seems likely to dictate the results of the vote, and, consequently, how much longer Trump can single-handedly reshape the federal government.

Fuel prices are surging up, despite the end of the summer travel season. Data out Friday showed little progress on inflation last month, which investors and economists say will likely lead the Federal Reserve to hike rates next week over Trump’s public objections.

Consumer sentiment slid below estimates in September, with consumers expecting prices will continue to rise. Just 35% of Republicans in the University of Michigan survey believe the government is doing a good job with the economy, the lowest reading since Trump returned to the White House last year.

Peppered throughout the president’s celebration of his second-term accomplishments was a growing, albeit, tacit admission of needing to do more to reassure voters: by acknowledging some victories could take time to manifest, and by dangling the prospect of a $5,000 “Trump dividend.” Pressed as he departed the convention on why such a payment was necessary if the economy was thriving, Trump told reporters he intended it as a “reward” for those who had suffered during President Joe Biden’s presidency. But he allowed that conditions hadn’t immediately improved upon his taking office.

“They had to put up with the four years, and that carried on at least half an additional year,” Trump said.

Vice President JD Vance’s keynote Thursday nodded to outrage over housing costs, imploring Republican voters to stick with the party even if they don’t agree on everything. US 30-year mortgage rates climbed to a one-year high earlier this week; prior to the Iran war, costs for home borrowing had fallen to their lowest level since 2022.

Trump was an inescapable presence over the two nights, speaking twice from the stage, sitting for a Fox News interview, chatting with traveling reporters and hosting high-dollar fundraisers.

Also Read: US budget deficit shrinks in August, year-to-date flat at $1.97 trillion

He insisted to all that would listen that things were good.

Growth, Trump argued in a Fox News interview, could not only pay for his $1.2 trillion dividend giveaway but help address a national debt that in recent weeks has surpassed $40 trillion, roiling the bond market. Inflation is elevated, but not nearly as high as seen during the Biden administration. The extension of his signature tax cut law — and new provisions giving seniors an additional break and removing federal taxes on some tips — meant tax returns were higher. Prescription drug prices have in some cases ticked down.

“We’ve had record employment in this country,” said Ray Washburne, the Sunoco LP chairman who co-chaired the committee staging the convention in Dallas. “We’re having boom times in a market like this, and I think that shows the rest of the country what can be done.”

But framing the economy as humming along is a risky gamble.

While the Internal Revenue Service issued roughly 99 million refunds this year, which, at $3,276, averaged about 12% higher than last year, the savings weren’t evenly distributed. Meanwhile, economists say rising energy costs have erased the cushion provided by tax cuts. Gasoline prices, at about $4.30 a gallon on average, are at their highest ever for September — though Washburne said Sunoco has seen no dip in demand. Diesel costs are at record highs and still climbing. And major food retailers like Conagra Brands Inc. and Campbell’s Co. say they plan to increase prices.

Polls suggest that Democrats should be the favorites to retake the House of Representatives, and have a good shot at control of the Senate despite a map that significantly favors Republicans. Just 33% of voters in a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday said they approved of how Trump has handled his job, with less than a third of respondents saying the same of his stewardship of the economy.

Just 29% were satisfied with his handling of the Iran war, while 28% backed his handling of a spiraling trade dispute with Canada. It was Trump’s worst standing ever in the poll.

Republicans are grappling with signs that Latino voters are swinging back to Democrats. That could create particular headaches in Texas, where Senate candidate Ken Paxton is struggling with his own low favorability ratings and a redistricting war designed to boost the number of GOP representatives from the state made some districts with high Latino populations more competitive.

There are signals that Republicans are refining their messaging.

The president has long dismissed “affordability” as a political attack, arguing voters understand higher energy prices will fall once the Iran war ends. But on Wednesday, he acknowledged that relief, including on gas prices, was unlikely to appear before the election. He also signaled that some of the fruits of his economic platform may not be felt while he was still in office.

“This has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency,” Trump declared Wednesday night, before adding an acknowledgement that the Main Street view is different. “I want you to remember me in four or five years, when this country’s rocketing — remember, I’m the one that got it started. I’m the one.”

Some of his supporters remained optimistic the president could find a way to push down gas prices before voters head to the polls.

“There’s a lot of factors that go into this that are kind of not Republicans’ fault, but, I know how voters think, like, ‘What are you doing for me now?’” said Jason Thompson, the RNC committee representative for Georgia, in an interview on the convention floor. “And I expect President Trump to fix a bunch of this stuff before November rolls around, including the price of gas.”

The decision to dangle the prospect of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans win majorities in both chambers of Congress — an aid package disguised as the largesse of victory — also betrayed an acknowledgement that many in the US economy were hurting.

That proposal was remarkable in both its scope — the price tag would likely hit at least $1.2 trillion — and as a rare, albeit tacit, recognition things might not be going perfectly. Trump has said openly he believes anxiety about affordability is largely overblown, a Democratic narrative fanned by the media and meant to undermine his accomplishments.

Critics paint the president as oblivious, his worldview colored by a sort of curated reality in which dissent has been banished. Former aides say he is cold to briefings that contain bad news, and many of Trump’s closest associates are richer than they’ve ever been.

But Trump also has a history of outperforming expectations and generating excitement, even as institutional elites roll their eyes.

While bond markets and economic experts were united in the implausibility of the giveaway program, voters feeling economic pain may only hear snippets about the proposal on the news. The president also used the convention to amplify culture war attacks, mocking Democrats’ support of transgender athletes and painting candidates as terrorist sympathizers and — perhaps worse — vegetarians.

Trump also seized on the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America, or DSA, to argue that Democrats were under the sway of a communist revolution — though the success of leftists could also be read as a leading indicator of an electorate eager for dramatic economic change that Trump had failed to deliver.

“If you’re asking about the DSA, we share many of the same goals,” Beto O’Rourke, a former Texas congressman and Democratic presidential candidate, said at a Bloomberg News event on the sidelines of the convention Thursday. DSA members want universal healthcare, a living wage and dignity for all people, he said. “These are values and goals shared by the Democratic party,” he said.

Pushing the national conversation onto what Republicans perceive as more favorable terrain could be a difference maker in November. But the party also can’t be seen as ignoring an issue that polls consistently show to be voters’ top concern. Throughout the convention, speakers took pains to soothe concerns over affordability without running afoul of the president.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner talked about the need to cut housing costs as attendees waved “Housing for Americans” signs, but blamed immigrants who came to the country under the Biden administration. Wisconsin Congressman Derrick Van Orden, one of the vulnerable Republicans in this cycle, extolled the need to cut healthcare costs.

Speaker Mike Johnson in his speech acknowledged the issue but pinned it to aftershocks from inflation under the prior administration.

“The very moment Republicans came in, we started working around the clock,” he said, adding that the contrast is between “common sense” Republicans and Democrats who would “explode our debt.” But he said it takes more than 20 months to change course.

The Republican faithful who flocked to the American Airlines Center said they were not concerned about affordability issues and didn’t blame Trump.

“Donald Trump single-handedly is helping our economy, our state government. Things are going good,” said Ed Oberts, a realtor in oil-rich Alaska who attended the convention. “Things are booming.”

Jutta Normoyle, a Texas Republican, said she was not very concerned. “Because I know it will get down again. So now you have to step back a little bit and afford what you can; later, you can afford more.”