Trump threatens to delay summit with China's Xi, turns Hormuz crisis into diplomatic leverage

Occupied on two warfronts, one in West Asia and another in trade, US President Donald Trump has found a connector - he has threatened to postpone a trade summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping unless Beijing helps safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran continues to disrupt global oil flows through the strait that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply with only a handful of countries (namely India, Russia and China) having had access to it recently.

The US president warned that a visit to Beijing planned for later this month could come too late if action is not taken soon, underscoring the urgency of securing the route after Iran moved to restrict shipping following recent US strikes.


Also Read | Japan, Germany, France cautious as Trump presses for Hormuz warship coalition

In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump stressed China’s heavy reliance on West Asian oil and renewed his demand for Beijing to contribute to efforts aimed at reopening the crucial maritime corridor.

“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said in the interview.

Last week, Trump had sounded a call for aid in his earlier promise of escorting ships through the now treacherous pathway.

Though he did not clarify for which countries his alarm bell rang specifically, reports indicate that seven nations top Trump’s list including China, Japan, South Korea, France, UK, and Germany.

Beijing, however, has remained noticeably silent on the matter - not issuing any statements yet on whether they are onboard with Trump’s guarantees.

Trump’s comments come as officials from Washington and Beijing are currently meeting in Paris to prepare the ground for the potential Trump–Xi meeting, with Bloomberg News reporting that talks are expected to continue this week.

China reluctant to join military effort

Despite pressure from Washington, China has so far shown little willingness to deploy naval forces to the region.

According to a report by Bloomberg News, Chinese officials have criticised the US military campaign against Iran, which remains an important diplomatic partner for Beijing.

Analysts say China is unlikely to send warships to the strait, partly because some oil shipments destined for Chinese buyers are still moving through the region and because the country maintains large strategic reserves.

Also Read | Strait of Hormuz watch: How Navy warships are protecting India-bound ships amid rising Gulf tensions

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, told Bloomberg News that Beijing has little reason to involve itself directly in the conflict.

“That’s his war, not our war,” Wu said.

This is also not the first time the now two-time President has used the leverage of cancelling meetings or deals in negotiations.

In a similar instance ahead of a previous planned summit with Xi, he threatened sharp tariff increases before ultimately proceeding with the meeting and extending a temporary truce in the two countries’ trade dispute.

Can Beijing be bullied?

According to the Bloomberg report, some analysts believe a delay in the summit may not trouble Beijing.

Chinese officials had earlier suggested holding the meeting later in the spring to allow more time for preparation and discussions on sensitive topics such as Taiwan.

Beijing has traditionally avoided direct involvement in overseas conflicts, preferring diplomatic engagement rather than military participation.

During attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea in recent years, China also refrained from joining multinational naval operations.

While China does possess the capability to escort ships, regularly deploying naval flotillas from its overseas base in Djibouti, its likely role in the current crisis would be diplomatic rather than military.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told Bloomberg News that Beijing could potentially act as an intermediary, encouraging Iran to keep the strait open while pressing Washington and its allies for concessions.

“The Chinese are most likely to mediate diplomatically,” she said. “They could ask Iran to keep the strait open, but with conditions that US and Israel must fulfill. It takes two to tango.”