Trump is facing record-low approval ahead of the 2026 US midterms as Democrats gain ground. Why history offers Republicans little comfort

US President Donald Trump is going into the upcoming mid-term elections in November amid lower approval ratings, higher costs of living and greater difficulties facing Republican candidates who wish to keep control of Congress. A recent opinion poll indicates that voters may now be more inclined to take their frustrations out on Trump's party at the polls. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday, only 31% of Americans approved of Trump’s presidency, the lowest approval level recorded in either of his two terms as president.

Democrats were ahead of Republicans by 12% points in a national voting intentions question.

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The findings come as the US-Israel war on Iran and higher fuel prices weigh on public opinion.

As Al Jazeera reported in its October 20 analysis of the midterms, Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, leaving them vulnerable if dissatisfaction with the president translates into votes for the opposition.

The historical record offers little reassurance.

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A party holding the White House has tended to lose members in Congress in the midterm election, especially when the president has poor ratings. However, opinion polls are not conclusive in themselves, as the spread of the competitive races and participation by the voters will be relevant as well.

A 12-point Democratic lead puts Republicans under pressure

A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed that among the registered voters, 47% of the people would opt for a Democratic candidate in the forthcoming congressional election, with the number of Republican voters at 35%. This is an increase of seven percentage points from the previous polling.

It was also clear that people were dissatisfied with the performance of the economy.

As per the figures provided by Al Jazeera, 40% of the people believed that Democrats were better able to handle the economy than Republicans, who garnered support from 33% of the respondents. It was particularly significant that women formed a key section of the voter bloc in favour of the Democrats.

Such numbers provide a glimpse of national mood and not any prediction of individual contests.

A generic ballot poll measures voter preference for a political party without mentioning a candidate or state. It does not provide insight into where the support is and whether the Democrats have sufficient competitive districts in order to win a majority.

The difference is important, considering that elections to Congress are held by district and state.

As Al Jazeera observed, there are 435 contested House seats and 33 Senate seats this year. The Republicans enjoy a slim 218-214 lead in the House, but their 53-47 Senate majority provides Democrats an opportunity to contest both houses of Congress.

What previous midterm elections tell us about Trump’s position

The party of a sitting president has historically struggled in midterm elections.

As pointed out by Al Jazeera through a reference to research conducted by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, presidential approval ratings were lower in July than November in 12 of 20 midterms held from 1946 to now.

Seven presidents saw an increase in their ratings, while for one of them, the ratings remained the same.

Historical figures of House seats further confirm the trend. According to statistics compiled by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections since 1946.

Nevertheless, the magnitude of the loss has been rather different each time.

As explained by Al Jazeera in its analysis, George HW Bush, who had an approval rating of approximately 75% in the 1990 midterm, suffered a relatively small loss of his Republicans. Bill Clinton, whose approval rating was 46% in 1994, saw 52 Democratic seats lost in Congress.

The example of Clinton is also a good illustration of the fact that one poll cannot be seen as destiny. In 1998, when Clinton's approval was 66%, the Democrats still only lost five seats. While public approval can certainly have an impact on the political atmosphere, it interacts with the candidates themselves and other factors.

At this point, Trump's approval standing at 31% is an alarming signal for Republicans. However, it should be noted that all these historical examples give us only an approximate estimation of possible losses Republicans might suffer from this president’s unpopularity in November.

Iran, fuel prices and the fight for control of Congress

The political pressure exerted on Trump goes beyond his general approval ratings. The issue of the high cost of living has emerged, and the war on Iran has made things worse for Trump. High prices of gas and diesel are even more of an issue for a president coming back into power after making a pledge to make life cheaper for Americans.

According to Al Jazeera, the tension has frustrated the people, and they might use it to vote for or against Trump in the midterm elections. The task for Republicans is to convince the voters to make their decision based on local issues rather than a decision against the president.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to leverage their polling strength nationally to win races in competitive districts and states.

Based on the projections that have been mentioned by Al Jazeera, there could be a number of competitive races in the Senate, such as those taking place in Alaska, Iowa and Texas. In the House, a batch of competitive districts may make or break the possibility for the Democrats to beat the Republican majority.

However, it is wise not to take the numbers too literally for a variety of reasons. The Center for Politics has noted that the presidential approval, which was recorded among actual voters, was higher at times than that recorded before the elections.

It would be problematic for Trump if he loses control of either chamber, as it would complicate the rest of his time as president.

What comes first is whether it is possible for Trump’s popularity to bounce back.

In addition, it will be important for Republicans to avoid being beaten by the electorate due to its current displeasure with the performance of President Donald Trump. Current statistics show that the party faces a tough situation. Past history indicates that low presidential popularity is costly thing in midterm elections.