Trump insists he has big lead over Harris, setting stage for 2024 doubts

Donald Trump and his allies are telling supporters that they're on pace for a runaway victory barring fraud - setting the stage for outrage and legal challenges if the election doesn't break in favour of Republicans.

The Republican nominee's efforts have ramped up in rally speeches since early voting began. By conflating polls and early-voting data, Trump is painting a reality for his faithful where he's got a clear lead and is on track for a resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris that only malfeasance can derail.

He's also sowing doubt in the sanctity of the process - amplifying complaints about irregularities in Pennsylvania.


"We're leading now in all the polls," he said during a rally Monday in Atlanta, imploring his supporters to make the vote "too big to rig." On Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump told a rally that he's enjoying more enthusiasm this cycle than during his 2016 or 2020 runs, and that he "can't believe it's a close race."

In reality, most polls have the candidates essentially tied, with some models showing a slight Trump advantage. Electoral fraud cases are exceedingly rare and don't tip the balance. But Trump's drumbeat of overly rosy projections and warnings about the electoral system set the stage for dispute of the results in the event of a Harris win.

The former president has repeatedly declined to say without qualification whether he'll accept the results of this election, and he often denies he lost his previous White House bid in 2020. He faces criminal charges in a federal court and in Georgia alleging he interfered with that election's results.

"A race that is tied doesn't have a frontrunner," said Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report. "Polling is not, never was and never will be precise enough to pinpoint a leader when it is fundamentally tied. All swing states are well within the margin of error."

Political leaders have long given optimistic projections of victory to rally supporters, with Democrats and Republicans alike regularly pledging what they'd do with a mandate.

"Make no mistake: We will win," Harris said at a North Carolina rally on Wednesday.