Trump hits a midterm wall: Past precedents & impact on India

The Democrats are set to take charge of both chambers of the US Congress, potentially derailing Donald Trump’s agenda in his last two years of presidency. Tanay Sukumar and Anna Catherine Jijo look at past precedents and explain in charts why the elections mattered for India.

H-1B visa issuances to Indians fell sharply after the US imposed a visa fee levy, with monthly issuances dropping from 17,136 in January 2025 to 1,625 in February 2026.

Indians’ share of total H-1B issuances declined from 71.9% in January 2025 to 35.4% in February 2026, highlighting the impact of the fee levy on visa issuance.

Exports to US began with positive growth of 16.2% in Apr '25, fluctuated sharply below -20%, and closed at 11.1% in Sept '26.

Total Exports started in negative territory at -3.82% in Apr '25, peaked at 18.4% towards the end of the period, and settled slightly lower by Sept '26.

• BSE Sensex (Daily Closing): Started at 75,073 on Jan 20, 2025, reached a peak above 85,000, and ended at 76,918 on Nov 3, 2026.
• Monthly FPI Net Investments in Equities ($ b): Stood at -$9.0 billion in Jan 2025, fluctuated with a drop down to -$13 billion, and finished at -$3.6 billion by Oct 2026.
• Brent Crude Oil Price ($/bbl): Stood at $82.93 on Jan 20, 2025, spiked above $140, and settled at $103.6 on Nov 3, 2026.
• INR/USD Exchange Rate (Inverse Scale): Depreciated from 86.21 on Jan 20, 2025, to 94.75 on Nov 3, 2026.

Barack Obama saw the largest House seat loss of -63 seats in 2010 and the largest Senate loss of -9 seats in 2014.

G.W. Bush in 2002 gained seats in both chambers (+8 House, +2 Senate), while Donald Trump (2018: +2) and Joe Biden (2022: +1) gained Senate seats despite losing House seats.

After the results: How past presidents fared post-midterms