Trade war under Trump 2.0 may subside if China agrees to shift few of its manufacturing units to US: Jefferies

The trade war between US and China under Trump 2.0 may subside if China agrees to shift some of its manufacturing units to the US says a recent report by Jefferies.

It said, "the return of the Donald to the White House offers an opportunity for Beijing to negotiate a new deal with Washington, which would probably include China indicating a willingness to move some production to America".

On the continued war between Russia and Ukraine, the report noted that a deal could have been signed in the past on an agreement that Ukraine would not join NATO.


It said "a deal could have been done at any time in the past two years and nine months on a simple commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO, though clearly Russia will now want to negotiate on the basis of the territory it now occupies".

However, the report also highlighted that the situation has now become more complex, with Russia likely wanting to negotiate based on the territory it currently occupies in Ukraine.

Additionally, the possibility of a deal regarding Ukraine could influence global markets, particularly by driving a "risk-on" sentiment, potentially lowering oil prices.

The report also warned that if tensions in the West Asia escalate, particularly about Iran, this could impact global stability and energy prices.

It said "Any expectation of a deal on Ukraine will certainly help the risk-on move, in terms of lower oil prices, unless escalation resumes in the West Asia. On that issue, Trump's approach seems less clear-cut than on Ukraine's"

The report noted that Trump's position on the West Asia remains less clear than his stance on Ukraine, especially in light of recent developments, such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to remove Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on the day of the US presidential election.

This move is seen by some as a precursor to heightened tensions with Iran, which could further complicate international relations.