Texas was expected to be a Republican stronghold. A new poll shows Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa gaining ground in two major 2026 races

Heading into the upcoming midterm election of 2026, Texas is seeing two of its most important statewide races become closer than Republicans may have hoped. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, the Democratic candidate James Talarico is leading the Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the race for US Senate by six points. In addition, the Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa is ahead of the Republican governor Greg Abbott by three points.

The poll surveyed 615 likely voters in Texas between September 21 and September 30 with a margin of error of four and a half percentage points.

It appears that the results of this poll are coming out right before early voting starts in Texas on October 19.

Talarico opens a six-point lead over Paxton

The Senate contest has shifted notably since the summer.

The Talarico candidate garnered 51 per cent support among likely voters while Paxton only secured 45 per cent according to the most recent Times/Siena survey. Talarico and Paxton had equal votes of 47 per cent in the poll conducted in June.

USA Today reported that Talarico's advantage is particularly pronounced among several voter groups. He is a leader of Paxton when it comes to women, young voters, and Hispanic voters, all of whom might matter in a statewide race.

Talarico enjoys a 56%-40% margin among women, a 66%-22% advantage among voters aged 18 to 29, and a 62%-30% edge among Hispanic voters.

The Democrat also performs better when voters are asked about character. The poll found 55% viewed Talarico as having good character, compared with 32% for Paxton.

The race is not settled, however. About 4% of those surveyed either remained undecided or indicated they would not vote, leaving some room for movement before Election Day.

The latest numbers also fit a broader pattern in September polling. Several surveys showed Talarico ahead, including polls from Marist, Texas Southern University, ReconMR, Emerson College, Mason-Dixon, SoCal Strategies and AARP.

Hinojosa moves ahead of Abbott in the governor's race

This year’s gubernatorial contest is also more competitive.

Hinojosa beats Abbott by 49% to 46% according to the Times/Siena survey, yet the difference falls within the poll’s margin of error. This is in contrast to the June results, where Abbott was leading Hinojosa by 51% to 44%.

USA Today reported that Hinojosa's strongest numbers come from some of the same demographic groups helping Talarico in the Senate contest.

But the Democrat leads Abbott with women 59%-39%, with voters aged 18 to 29 61%-27%, and with Hispanics 64%-28%.

But this doesn’t mean that Abbott’s advantage is eroded in every part of the state. In addition, other surveys show that Abbott enjoys a lead in the race, such as one done by Fox News in late September where Abbott leads by five percentage points against Hinojosa.

However, the latest Times/Siena survey supports the idea that Hinojosa’s campaign is much more competitive than Abbott’s previous Democratic competitors.

Texas voters are split on issues shaping the election

The polling also offers clues about what could influence voters beyond the candidate matchups.

One issue highlighted in the survey is the rapid expansion of data centres in Texas. According to the USA Today report, 57% of voters said they strongly or somewhat oppose data-centre construction.

This could become an especially pressing matter as Texas remains a destination for significant technology and energy investments, where concerns related to power consumption, water usage, and the effects of the plants have been incorporated into local and state-level politics.

According to the wider poll results, it appears that voters do not consider the two parties equally. In September, Siena found that Abbott did better on questions such as border control and public safety, but Hinojosa was favoured on matters of affordability and water.

That split could make the final weeks of the campaign especially important. Candidates will need to turn broad voter concerns into reasons for people to actually cast a ballot.

Early voting could set the tone for the final stretch

The timing of the latest poll makes the numbers particularly significant.

Voting in Texas starts on October 19, so campaign teams have limited time to react to this last measure of how voters feel. These results will not determine anything, especially since the difference between candidates in both elections is within the margin of error for the poll.

But the Senate contest has clearly become a race Republicans cannot take for granted.

The lead that Talarico currently enjoys is greater than in prior September polls, while the lead that Hinojosa holds over Abbott makes the governor's race a statistical toss-up.

The Texas Politics Project's tracking polls database, which was updated following the Times/Siena poll, illustrates just how fluid the race for governor continues to be, with recent polls showing an edge for either Abbott or Hinojosa.

For Republicans, the problem is maintaining their standing in statewide races in a state where polling indicates that the Democrats have been making significant gains. For Democrats, the numbers provide an opportunity — but one that still requires turning polling support into votes.

With early voting approaching, Texas may offer one of the more closely watched political battles of the 2026 midterms.