Strait of Hormuz, uranium and oil prices: The three issues now standing between Trump and an Iran war deal

The route to peace between the United States and Iran is becoming increasingly linked to three factors that go far beyond the military arena: the Iranian nuclear enrichment program, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of the war on oil prices. US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the war against Iran may end “very quickly,” adding that he expects oil prices to plummet after the fighting ends. He also claimed that US military action had taken away Iran's nuclear capability.

But Washington and Tehran remain far apart on the conditions for a settlement.

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The US vice president JD Vance has stated explicitly that any agreement will demand that Iran make some tangible efforts to reduce uranium enrichment capability. On its part, Iran has been pursuing the diplomatic way and has offered a plan designed to resume navigation of ships via the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the major energy passages in the world.

The outcome is an ever more complicated negotiation where the nuclear program, Hormuz navigation, and energy prices become interconnected.

Iran's uranium enrichment has become Washington's key demand

For the Trump administration, the nuclear issue remains central to any potential ceasefire or peace agreement.

As Vance told Reuters, Washington is ready to talk, but it expects Iran to demonstrate a “meaningful” cutback in its enrichment capability before the US stops the seven-month-long war.

The point is that Vance wonders why Tehran needs uranium enriched to 60%, when its goal is to refrain from creating a nuclear bomb.

Vance’s views are a part of a wider requirement of Washington, which demands something concrete, not just some future steps by Iran.

“We're not going to trade words for actions,” Vance said.

That leaves little room for a settlement based solely on diplomatic assurances. It is probably true that Tehran will have to prove that its nuclear program has been limited in such a manner as to be verified by Washington.

The issue is especially significant since nuclear enrichment has now become one of the major dividing issues in the negotiations. Until both sides come to terms on how the Iranian nuclear program should be structured after the war, there will be no political settlement.

Tehran wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened

The second problem area is the Strait of Hormuz, a passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. This passageway is very important for global energy markets as it is used for transporting large quantities of oil and energy resources. Any disruption can affect transportation costs, insurance premiums, and fuel prices globally rather quickly.

Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, noted that while his country is ready to defend itself, it is also ready to take diplomatic actions. According to Al Jazeera, he stated that his country's delegation at the UN General Assembly has offered America a plan for seven days to reopen the passageway.

The proposal came as the two countries exchanged ideas aimed at stopping the fighting and restoring maritime traffic.

Trump rejected Iran's offer after it was presented, while American officials subsequently put forward a counterproposal intended to restart negotiations.

The disagreement over Hormuz is therefore about more than shipping.

For Tehran, reopening the waterway could become part of a wider ceasefire arrangement. For Washington, guaranteeing the free movement of commercial vessels would be an important measure of whether Iran is genuinely prepared to de-escalate.

Trump sees cheaper oil as a benefit of ending the war

Oil prices have become another pressure point for the Trump administration.

Trump stated that the war would be finished very soon and forecasted that prices of crude oil would fall dramatically as soon as the war ends.

This forecast is related to the direct relationship between the war and the energy sector. Any threat to the shipment of oil through the Gulf area leads to an increase in the price of oil.

The economic consequences are politically sensitive for Washington.

Higher fuel prices can quickly affect American households, businesses and transportation costs. With the US midterm elections approaching, the price of gasoline has become an increasingly important political issue.

An agreement that restores normal shipping through Hormuz could therefore provide relief to energy markets.

But oil prices will not depend solely on whether the shooting stops. Investors will pay attention to see how commercial ships can navigate through the region, how insurers revert to their usual rates, and how oil exporters can continue exporting their goods.

A ceasefire without reliable maritime access may not immediately produce the dramatic fall in prices Trump has predicted.

Tehran and Washington still disagree over who holds power

Even if negotiators overcome the nuclear and Hormuz disputes, another complication remains: how decisions are made inside Iran.

Vance said the US government is still uncertain about where ultimate decision-making authority lies in Tehran. Although American officials have been communicating with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Vance questioned how much influence they have over the country's wider political system.

Iran rejected that assessment.

Baghaei stated that US policymakers have knowledge of their Iranian colleagues and decision-making process. The issue is, he noted, the inconsistent messaging from the United States.

Such an inconsistency could lead to problems when making a deal.

At present, the picture of diplomacy looks unclear.

Trump is predicting a rapid end to the war, while Vance is demanding tangible changes to Iran's enrichment programme. Tehran is seeking a negotiated route to protect its interests while pushing for the reopening of Hormuz.

The three issues are tightly linked.

Iran's nuclear activities determine how far Washington is prepared to compromise. The Strait of Hormuz determines whether a ceasefire can restore confidence in global energy supplies. And oil prices will provide one of the most immediate measures of whether any agreement is actually easing the economic consequences of the war.

Until those questions are resolved, Trump's prediction of a quick end to the conflict remains dependent on negotiations that still have substantial ground to cover.