Russia ships the least crude oil in a month as major Baltic port halts

Russia shipped the least crude in a month as operations at its key Baltic port were paused, most likely for maintenance work.

In the four weeks through Oct. 18, overseas crude flows fell to 3.59 million barrels a day, tanker data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was down by 110,000 barrels a day the period to Oct. 11.

Satellite images of the Primorsk terminal near St. Petersburg show no tankers berthed at jetties in the middle of last week, while industry reports and automatic tracking signals suggest a three-day gap in arrivals and departures. Similar interruptions in the past have been linked to maintenance.


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The dip in flows is likely temporary. Activity at Primorsk picked up again as the week ended, while flows through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk have also recovered.

Separately, Kyiv resumed its attacks on Russian oil refineries after Moscow continued strikes against power and water infrastructure across Ukraine despite a US announcement of an “energy ceasefire.” The Ryazan plant, southeast of Moscow, was forced to halt one of its four primary crude processing units after being attacked on Thursday.

Still, the intensity of Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel-production sites has decreased. Kyiv confirmed only one attack in the week to Oct. 18, down from three during the previous seven-day period, including one on Russia’s largest refinery, in Omsk. Satellite images also showed a fire at the Surgut condensate stabilization plant in western Siberia after regional authorities spoke about a drone attack on a local industrial facility.

Attacks on refineries force Moscow to divert crude it can’t process into the export stream, potentially boosting overseas crude sales. But falling production in the country may be limiting shipments.

Russia pumped 8.64 million barrels a day of crude in September, according to secondary source data published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That was the lowest since mid-2020, when Moscow slashed production in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the 10th straight drop in monthly production estimates.

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Separately, US President Donald Trump has taken several steps that appear to aid Moscow’s oil trading, though none seems likely to boost crude exports. These include waiving new sanctions that were supported by Congress, concluding a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at lifting Russian diesel shipments and authorizing the sale of shadow fleet tankers used by Moscow to ship its oil to bring them back into the mainstream fleet.

The sanctions waiver, which lifts the threat of punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, may embolden buyers in India to boost purchases of Moscow’s barrels, which have slipped from the highs seen in July and August.

At the same time, Trump has been piling pressure on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt attacks on Russian refineries. Such a move would likely reduce crude exports from Russia, if processing rates at its refineries were to recover.

Crude Shipments

In the week to Oct. 18, some 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and industry reports show. The volume compared with a revised 24.63 million barrels on 34 ships the previous week.

Shipments fell by 390,000 barrels a day last week to average 3.13 million barrels a day, the lowest since March.

A drop in shipments from Primorsk more than offset a rebound in flows from Novorossiysk. A gap in ship movements of several days during the week suggests that loading operations may have been suspended for maintenance at the port or the pipeline that supplies it.

Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.

There were two shipments of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Moscow diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude last month through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.

The amount of Russian crude on the water edged lower last week, with the drop in shipments partly offset by slower deliveries to refiners in China and India.

Ships hauling Arctic crude to China are typically transferring their cargoes onto other vessels. These transfers usually take place east of Singapore from ships taking the Red Sea route and off Nakhodka or Zarubino for those taking the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These transfers can introduce delays, boosting the amount of oil at sea.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports fell to $2.61 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 18, down by $60 million from the period to Oct. 11. That took the value of Moscow’s crude shipments using this measure to a three-week low. Higher four-week average prices for Russia’s key ESPO crude, which accounts for more than a quarter of overseas shipments, partly offset the lower flows and a small drop in Urals prices.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports fell by about $380 million to $2.33 billion, the lowest in six weeks, with lower Urals prices compounding a third straight drop in shipments.

Flows by Destination

China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez, Port Sudan, or Singapore. These are recorded as “Unknown Asia” until a credible final destination is available. Ships still showing their destinations as their Russian loading ports, or places such as Gibraltar, are recorded as “Other Unknown.”

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 3.43 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 18, down from a revised 3.54 million in the period to Oct. 11.

Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region were unchanged from the revised figure for the period to Oct. 11. That figure was revised up to about 160,000 barrels a day after two tankers heading toward the Suez Canal changed their destinations to Mersa el Hamra on the country’s Mediterranean coast. Another ship revealed its destination as Turkey.

That took flows there to about 100,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 18, unchanged from the earlier period.

An earlier flurry of shipments to Egypt, which took flows to as much as 160,000 barrels a day in mid-June, has fallen back to about 50,000 barrels a day in the most recent period.

Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.

Shipments to the region may be revised higher once destinations for almost 1.7 million barrels a day of crude become clear. Historically, most cargoes on ships showing intermediate destinations have been delivered to India or China.