Questions for 2020: Donald Trump gets re-elected?

US economy is The Don’s best bodyguard.

Two months ago, the markets rated Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected as US president at a shade about 40%. After being impeached by the House of Representatives earlier this month, his odds of winning the 2020 US presidential elections have actually improved. It’s still a distance to go, but this is not really a surprise. With not just the Republican grand machinery rallying around its chief, but also Trump supporters getting a double-shot of finding a reason to protect ‘their’ president from liberal attack, the Don may have been delivered a Christmas-New year present by Democrat America.

Punters aside, the US has historically reelected a president if the incumbent manages to avoid economic recession. (William McKinley bucked that trend way back in 1900.) Under Trump, US unemployment has fallen to 3.5%, the lowest since 1969, and a Chinese slowdown, in conjunction with a strong economy, actually strengthening Trump’s leverage in the ‘trade war’ arena.


There is also no real sign of a Democratic upsurge. Joe Biden may edge out Elizabeth Warren in the nomination stakes, but the former vice-president smacks of ‘ancien regime’, something that Middle America may not have the appetite — or reason — to return to in 2020. So unless something goes terribly wrong in the script, it looks like a ‘Trumphant’ return. Which is still unpredictable, but then, what isn’t about Donald Trump?

This story is part of the '20 Questions for 2020' package.