Prediction markets see heavy betting on Anthropic IPO as traders wager on valuation and listing venue

Prediction markets are seeing massive trades for Anthropic contracts after the AI giant's IPO filing, even as retail stock traders await the official opening bell likely next month.

The binary "yes" or "no" bets in prediction markets are influencing the way retail investors speculate on high-profile IPOs, allowing traders to wager on aspects such as the closing prices and its listing venue without the need to buy shares.

"Prediction market interest in Anthropic's IPO is the financial equivalent of people lining up outside the Apple Store before a new iPhone release," said Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at wealth management and financial advisory firm Cerity Partners. Earlier this week, Anthropic took a major step toward going public by unveiling its IPO filing. The listing could value the AI lab between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.


On Polymarket, more than a dozen markets have sprung up around the IPO, where traders are placing bets on its fundraising haul, listing exchange and debut valuation. Rival Kalshi is also drawing bets on everything from which bank will lead the offering to which sector index providers will classify Anthropic in.