PetroChina forecasts Chinese oil consumption will drop 4.9% this year

Beijing: China's oil consumption is expected to drop in 2026 amid a pivot to new energy and high oil prices due to the Iran war, according to a report published by PetroChina's research unit.

China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million tons of oil ‌in 2026, a ⁠4.9% ⁠drop from 2025 when consumption rose by 3.6%, according to a report by PetroChina Planning and ​Engineering Institute.

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Here are some other key figures from the report:

* China's crude production ​is forecast at 217 million tons in 2026, up 0.5% year on year.

* Oil demand is plateauing and projected to fall to around 700 ​million tons by 2030.

* Oil refining capacity is ⁠set to ‌reach 963 million tons per annum in 2026, an ​increase of ​15 million tons.

* Refined oil consumption is forecast at ⁠324 million tons in 2026, down 6.4% from 346 ​million tons in 2025, pointing to an accelerating contraction compared ​with a 3.5% drop last year.

* Jet fuel is an exception, with consumption expected to grow 0.2% in 2026.

* Gas consumption is forecast to grow 1.3%-2.5% year on year in 2026, reaching 440-445 billion cubic metres, up from 434.3 bcm in 2025.

* Gas demand is expected ‌to rise further to 530-550 bcm by 2030.

* New ethylene capacity additions are forecast at 6.72 million tons per annum in ​2026, with ​4.15 mtpa from ⁠naphtha crackers.

* Demand for key new materials such as polyolefin elastomers (POE) is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2026, while carbon fibre demand is expected to surge ​48.7%.

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* Domestic self sufficiency in POE and carbon fibre continued to improve in 2025, with domestic production as a percentage of total POE consumption up 11.9 percentage points and carbon fibre up 0.7 percentage points. The data did not show the total percent of consumption produced domestically.