Pakistan in political turmoil: Imran Khan's uncertain future

The threat of political turmoil in the nuclear-armed nation is growing as the opposition looks to remove Prime Minister Imran Khan in a vote that could come as soon as this month after a no-confidence motion was unveiled in parliament last week.

Also several legislators from Imran Khan’s ruling party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have withdrawn their support for him ahead of the no-confidence vote, stoking more uncertainty over whether the former cricketer can hang on to power.The only way that the PM can retain his job is if the opposition fails to muster a strength of 172 in the lower house during the vote. Or if for some reason, the opposition withdraws the motion. There is no other way out for the PM and his cabinet. Legal experts say the speaker may attempt to delay the process and push the vote forward, and this may ultimately end up in courts, but the vote will need to take place one way or another. What matters is the numbers game.



Now the PTI government is doing legal gymnastics with constitutional procedures, but there is no way around the vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Khan. Without the coalition partners and the dissidents, Khan’s PTI, which has 155 seats in the lower house, would fall short of the 172 needed to retain power.The joint opposition consists of major parties such as the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the PPP of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, respectively, and has more than 160 seats in the lower house. PTI has filed a petition in the Supreme Court seeking clarification on a constitutional point regarding disqualification of the dissident lawmakers who have threatened to vote against embattled Prime Minister Imran Khan during a no-trust motion.

The real danger for PM Khan is that he may lose his coalition partners, who appear to be tilting towards their opponents. “We have differences with the prime minister,” one of his legislators, Raja Riaz, told local Geo News TV. “We will vote according to our conscience,” he said, claiming there were more than 20 defectors. PTI is now mobilising party and state resources for holding what it says will be the “biggest rally” in Pakistan’s history. It wants to send a message to parliamentarians, both PTI and opposition, that they must not enter parliament to vote on the no-confidence motion.The leaders of the two main opposition parties have also called for their supporters to gather, prompting authorities to declare most of this week a public holiday in the hope of avoiding conflict -- particularly during the organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting of the Foreign Ministers from March 22-23 in Islamabad.

The opposition and political analysts say Khan has fallen out with Pakistan’s powerful military whose support they see as critical for any political party to attain power in the way the upstart PTI did four years ago. According to Talat Masood, a retired general-turned-political analyst, "I think the army leadership must be extremely concerned seeing what is happening on the political scene at the moment."

The opposition blames Khan for mismanaging the country, economy and foreign policy. Khan's PTI party is pursuing a court case against rebellious members that could force them to follow the whip. "He has managed his own and allied political parties poorly," political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said of Khan. Hence, toppling of the elected Government of Imran Khan by Pakistan Army Chief Bajwa cannot be ruled out as Pakistan Army had done similar manoeuvres in the past.Bajwa, on the other hand, can install a puppet government of Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of ex-PM, Nawaz Sharif. Pakistan Army is struggling to contain Baloch and Pashtun nationalists who are giving deadly blows to the Army as Pakistan Army officers and soldiers are regularly being killed. Unreliable partnership with the Taliban in Pakistan is also a problem for the Pakistan Army as Taliban is also not listening to the dictates of Rawalpindi. Firing on Pakistan troops in the bordering areas of Afghanistan by Taliban forces recently is a testimony to the mistrust.

Even PM Imran’s personal conduct has not escaped the notice of Pakistanis. On March 18, Islamabad High Court called Prime Minister Imran Khan's conduct during his rally in Lower Dir on March 11 as "inappropriate." Khan had made a profanity-laced speech in the rally, using derogatory language for the Opposition leaders and threatening them with consequences if the no-confidence motion scheduled against Khan is defeated. Imran Khan launched a scathing attack on the troika of opposition figures, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Asif Zardari and Shehbaz Sharif, the three leaders who are spearheading the no-trust move against him while addressing a public meeting in Balambat, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Khan referred to the trio of Opposition leaders as "Showbaz Sharif, Diesel and Dakoo".

Although Pakistan escaped the worst of the Covid-19 epidemic, the economy is in the doldrums with soaring inflation, a feeble rupee, and crippling debt.At a time Imran Khan's government is facing opposition in Pakistan, the International Monetary Fund has asked the government to explain how it would fund the $1.5 billion subsidy package that Prime Minister Imran Khan announced.

On February 28, Pakistan's former finance minister and well-known economist Dr Hafeez A Pasha disclosed that the current account deficit was heading towards a historic record by touching the USD 20 billion mark or 6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current fiscal year. He said the international prices of various commodities were witnessing skyrocketing trends and now the Current Account Deficit (CAD) would witness more pressure with the possibility of touching a historic high. "For God's sake, the political parties must shun their differences because the country is heading towards a serious financial crisis," he appealed.

Meanwhile to distract the public from the no-confidence vote, Khan is seemingly in a mood to provide subsidies to the general public even at the cost of the economy which has already plunged into crisis.On March 1, he announced an industrial package just a day after slashing petrol and power prices as part of relief measures for the public. But the industrial package is impossible to sustain because Pakistan is being retained on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The ongoing talks on the seventh review with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will remain stalled as the Fund, and all other international donor agencies, have pledged to work with the FATF.

Moreover, the package envisages granting fiscal and monetary benefits to the rich and influential at the cost of the general public. The conflict between the Prime Minister's claim that "mafias" are operating in all major sectors raking in windfall profits and his industrial package that would benefit mainly these mafias - those operating in the legal and illegal domain -- is sadly becoming starker with the passage of time.

With flaring domestic issues, Khan has tried to position himself on the international stage. Imran Khan is all set to trumpet his achievement of getting Islamophobia recognised at the United Nations at the OIC meeting, while at the same time battling the most serious challenge to his rule in four years. As Khan faces the no-confidence motion, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) agenda seeks approval for over 100 declarations, including aid for financially strapped Afghanistan and support for the Palestinians and Kashmir. Khan is already concocting an explanation for his possible ouster- that he is being punished by the West for his independent foreign policy and jihad against Islamophobia. He threatens to unleash hell upon turncoat members of his own party and, of course, the opposition. In this same vein he took to praising independent India’s foreign policy. But that praise for India has not gone down well for either the opposition or dissident PTI members. Under Khan Pakistan’s foreign policy has been severely criticised. Pakistanis and the international community noticed with shock as PM Khan hailed Osama bin Laden a martyr; calling the Taliban liberators; US & Europe took notice of the fact that Imran Khan visited Moscow and shook hands with Putin just before the Ukraine war.

The return of the Taliban to power in neighbouring Afghanistan has also provoked a resurgence of militancy in Pakistan, including the bombing of a Shiite mosque in Peshawar last month claimed by the local chapter of ISIS that killed more than 60 people. He was also one of the few world leaders to attend the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics when others boycotted in protest at China's human rights record. Considering the outcome of the Russia visit, it did not prove fruitful as the separate press releases issued by the two sides after the visit did not mention the signing of any agreement or even a Memorandum of Understanding.